China's domestic alumina spot prices edged lower last week, with trading sentiment remaining relatively subdued during the National Day holiday period.
On supply side, China's domestic alumina operating capacity currently stands at approximately 99.9 million tonnes per year. A coastal alumina refinery in Guangxi commenced calciner maintenance around October 4, expected to last about one month, affecting capacity of roughly 1 million tonnes per year. However, newly commissioned and restarted capacity from earlier periods has gradually translated into stable incremental supply.
Coupled with expectations of further new capacity releases in the fourth quarter, the impact of sporadic routine maintenance on market sentiment remains limited. Two new projects, one coastal and one inland in Guangxi, collectively commenced production of approximately 1.8 million tonnes last month, bringing the province's total operating capacity to about 22.5 million tonnes per year. The "south-to-north shipment" channel continues to expand, now reaching northwest China in addition to the northeast, which may exert sustained pressure on northern markets going forward.
Last week's price decline was primarily driven by an unchanged high-supply landscape, leaving the market in a wait-and-see mode. Spot transactions remained concentrated between traders and smelters, with downstream aluminum producers adopting a dip-buying strategy. Some tender-based transactions continued to drift lower.
As of last Thursday (October 9, 2026), national alumina capacity utilization was 83.05%, down 0.56 percentage points week-on-week. As remaining new capacity is gradually released through the end of the year, bearish sentiment persists, with some traders adopting a cautious pricing stance. By region, spot availability in the north remains moderate, while supply in the southwest is relatively loose. Widening price spreads and narrowing freight differentials have expanded cross-regional sales radius.
Domestic alumina traders' inventories stood at 7.01 million tonnes, up 68,000 tonnes week-on-week. Post-holiday restocking by downstream buyers was slow, with some refineries experiencing pile-ups. Long-term contract execution remains active, while raw material inventories at aluminum smelters continued to edge higher.
According to Mysteel, domestic aluminum plants consumed approximately 1.68 million tonnes of alumina last week, largely flat week-on-week. Operating capacity of domestic aluminum smelters remains at around 45.42 million tonnes per year, with overall raw material inventories ample and spot procurement sentiment muted.
Recent capacity additions and maintenance in southern China have coexisted, but no concentrated production cuts have emerged. Entering the fourth quarter, the market has begun inquiring about next year's long-term contracts. Despite mounting losses, refineries remain strongly committed to maintaining stable output to secure contract share.
Some downstream smelters and traders believe the downside for spot prices is narrowing, with risks of scaled production adjustments ahead. Recent futures price volatility has boosted fixed-price transaction activity, though transacted prices remain on a downward trend. In the short term, oversupply pressures show no signs of abating. Domestic spot alumina prices are expected to continue their soft performance next week, with a forecast trading range of Yuan 2,500–2,650/tonne.
Written by Regina WANG
wangjiaqie@mysteel.com
