China's cotton yarn imports keep rapid growth in Sep, but domestic "golden September" falls short

Meanwhile, the domestic cotton yarn market has shown an underwhelming peak season, with prices stable but weak, and a clear divergence has emerged between imported and domestically produced yarn.

Looking at the monthly trend, cotton yarn imports have rebounded for two consecutive months since the year's low in July, rising above 210,000 tonnes in September to a new monthly high since the start of 2026. Cumulative imports from January to September reached about 1.6045 million tonnes, up 54.79% year-on-year, maintaining rapid import growth.

On prices, the all-caliber average import price of cotton yarn in September was about US $2,502/tonne, up about 12.3% year-on-year. Behind the simultaneous rise in import volume and price, there remained a certain profit margin in the price spread between domestic and imported cotton yarn, and traders were thus with a relatively strong willingness to restock and build inventories. On the other hand, it was also related to textile enterprises in major Southeast Asian producing countries actively exporting to China and the concentrated arrival of earlier orders.

Moreover, the year-on-year increase in average import prices was notably faster than that of domestic yarn. Therefore, the domestic-import price spread has narrowed somewhat, and the high-growth momentum of imports may face marginal weakening going forward.

By source country, Vietnam has remained China's largest source of cotton yarn imports, with its advantage continuing to expand. In September 2026, about 103,600 tonnes of cotton yarn were imported from Vietnam, accounting for 48.7% of total imports; of this, about 90,900 tonnes were pure cotton yarn and about 12,700 tonnes were blended yarn, with Vietnam ranking first in both categories.

India ranked second with about 32,200 tonnes, and Pakistan third with about 23,100 tonnes. Indian and Pakistani yarn is mainly pure cotton medium and low-count yarn. Uzbekistan exported about 16,600 tonnes of pure cotton yarn to China in September, jumping to become the fourth-largest source country.

In recent years, China's imports of Uzbek cotton yarn, leveraging raw material costs and tariff preferences, has steadily expanded, forming certain competitiveness in the medium and low-count ring-spun sector and becoming an important supplement beyond Vietnam, India and Pakistan.

Overall, China's cotton yarn import sources are highly concentrated, with the top four source countries accounting for about 82.5% combined, and Vietnam's leadership is difficult to shake in the short term.

In contrast to the rising volume and price of imported yarn, the domestic cotton yarn market's "Golden September and Silver October" peak season has been underwhelming.

From late September to mid-October, domestic C32S ring-spun quotes gradually declined from Yuan 24,251/tonne to Yuan 23,851/tonne, a drop of about Yuan 400/tonne. Downstream demand has been lackluster, and expectations for a peak-season recovery has continued to weaken.

Looking ahead, the cotton yarn market is expected to see the continued divergence between imported and domestic yarn. 

For imported yarn, port inventories have accumulated somewhat, making traders' sentiment increasingly cautious. Combined with the notable year-on-year rise in average import prices and the narrowing domestic-import price spread, the short-term high-growth momentum of imports may gradually slow.

For domestic yarn, new-crop cotton is being concentrated onto the market, and raw material supply is ample, exerting some pressure on yarn prices. However, downstream textile order recovery remains flat, and the payment collection pace of weaving and fabric mills has slowed, with limited demand-side support for prices.

In summary, short-term cotton yarn prices may remain weak and rangebound. Attention should be paid to the pace of downstream order recovery and the direction of new cotton purchase prices, and vigilance is warranted against price downside risks from peak-season demand falling short of expectations.