Funds show a strong wait-and-see sentiment, while pressures on the physical side remain prominent: domestic commercial inventories have accumulated to more than 1.16 million tonnes, arrivals for November-December shipments remain high, and downstream catering and industrial purchasing is light. The spot basis in Tianjin remains at a discount. However, on the production-origin side, SPPOMA shows that the month-on-month decline in October full-month output has widened, SGS export data has improved, and speculation over El Nino-driven production cuts in 2027 has made far-month contracts relatively resilient, with the near-weak, far-strong structure continuing. In the short term, palm oil is rangebound at Yuan 9,200-9,400/tonne, and the direction choice depends on the MPOB October report around November 10. If inventories are confirmed to have peaked and begun to fall, near-month discount repair could have greater upside elasticity.