MONTHLY: China's thermal coal supply recovery expectations outweigh winter restocking support in October

China's domestic market for thermal coal rose at first in October before falling by the end of the month. Early in October, slow coal mine resumptions tightened spot availability at northern ports, while expectations of winter restocking lent further support to prices. However, as expectations of recovering supply strengthened in late October, market sentiment cooled and pushed prices lower.

The key tension in October was that tight supply supported price increases but failed to generate sufficiently strong buying, while improving supply expectations further undermined the rally. The market gradually shifted its focus from immediate spot tightness to whether future supply growth would outpace winter restocking demand. Tight supply drives