China unlikely to suspend diesel exports in November 2026 despite tight domestic supply

Improved crude feedstock availability, flexibility in refinery operations and limited domestic demand growth could help ease supply constraints. While individual export cargoes and shipment schedules may be adjusted, China's preliminary refined product export plans for November total 5.17 million tonnes, up 32.9% from October, indicating scope for a recovery in exports.

| Tight Diesel Supply Fuels Speculation Over Export Restrictions

Concerns over China's diesel export outlook have intensified as commercial refined product inventories have fallen to their lowest levels in nearly seven years, with diesel spot supplies particularly tight.

Inventory pressure is especially pronounced among independent refiners and traders, prompting questions over whether major state-owned refiners may need to increase domestic supplies at the expense of exports. Reports of cancelled diesel export cargoes and revisions to shipment plans have added to uncertainty over November trade flows.

GL Consulting considers a nationwide suspension of diesel exports unlikely under current market conditions. Although individual cargoes and export schedules may be adjusted, overall refined product exports could increase in November and December compared with October.

The assessment takes into account crude feedstock availability, refinery processing capacity, domestic fuel demand and existing export arrangements.

| Refinery Supply Constraints Could Ease in November

Low commercial inventories reflect recent supply constraints, particularly among independent refiners that reduced operating rates in response to limited crude availability and elevated feedstock costs.

However, refinery supply conditions could improve in the coming weeks.

Independent refiners purchased substantial volumes of crude oil in October, providing relatively secure feedstock supplies through November and early December. This reduces the likelihood of further significant cuts in operating rates.

Meanwhile, although maintenance activity has increased at some major state-owned refineries, Sinopec's scheduled maintenance is expected to decline during November and December. This would provide some flexibility to adjust refinery runs and increase refined product output.

These factors suggest that low inventory levels may persist in the near term without necessarily leading to a broader domestic supply shortage.

| Limited Domestic Demand Growth Reduces Pressure on Exports

China's domestic refined product demand outlook also suggests limited pressure for a nationwide diesel export suspension.

Gasoline demand is expected to weaken in November, while diesel consumption is forecast to increase only modestly. Essential demand in southern China should provide some support, although seasonal slowdowns in mining, industrial and infrastructure activity across northern regions are likely to constrain overall growth.

With domestic demand growth remaining limited and refiners retaining some flexibility to adjust production, the supply outlook does not currently point to a need for a nationwide export suspension.

Outstanding refined product export quotas also provide room for further overseas shipments, although individual export arrangements remain subject to adjustment.

| November Export Plans Suggest Scope for a Rebound

According to a survey by Mysteel OilChem, China's preliminary refined product export plans for November stand at approximately 5.17 million tonnes, an increase of 1.28 million tonnes, or 32.9%, from October. [Update: November 5, 2026, 6:00 p.m. Beijing time | According to the latest figures from Mysteel OilChem, China's preliminary refined product export plans for November have been revised to 4.85 million tonnes.]

The figure represents planned exports across refined product categories, including gasoline and diesel, rather than diesel shipments alone. It is also a preliminary estimate, with actual export volumes subject to changes in refinery production and shipment arrangements.

The planned increase suggests that refined product exports could recover from October levels, even if some diesel cargoes are cancelled or rescheduled.

| Refinery Runs and Export Allocations Will Shape the Near-Term Outlook

Several factors will determine whether China's refined product exports can recover through the remainder of the year.

Key developments to monitor include Sinopec's refinery processing and export plans for November and December, PetroChina's maintenance schedules and diesel export allocations, as well as changes in independent refinery operating rates.

Crude availability and domestic inventory movements will provide further indications of whether supply constraints are easing and how much refined product output can be allocated to the export market.

For now, GL Consulting maintains that a nationwide diesel export suspension is unlikely, with adjustments to individual shipments remaining a more plausible scenario.

| Explore GL Consulting's November China Oil Market Outlook

GL Consulting will present its latest assessment of China's oil market in the upcoming November 10 COMO Viewpoints.

The report covers China's crude oil supply, refinery operations, gasoline and diesel supply-demand fundamentals, inventories, prices and import-export trends, offering a comprehensive assessment of the key developments shaping the market.

Click here or contact us at inquiries@mysteel.com to request the November 10 report.