Premium: Tight spot supply lifts spot premiums to multi-year highs
China's refined copper spot premiums surged last week. Refined copper arrivals remained low as smelters under maintenance and production cuts prioritized long-term contract deliveries, leaving limited material available for the spot market, while imported copper inflows offered little incremental replenishment. Retail inventories in Shanghai and Guangdong fell to new year-to-date lows, strengthening holders' resolve to support prices. Even as spot trading activity declined amid strong downstream resistance to high premiums, spot premiums still posted sizable week-on-week gains. The premium for standard copper in Shanghai climbed continuously from Yuan 1,125/tonne on October 30 to Yuan 2,550/tonne on November 6, a week-on-week gain of more than Yuan 1,400/tonne and the highest level in recent years. Looking ahead, Shanghai's refined copper arrivals are expected to increase slightly, and with the futures backwardation spread continuing to widen, holders' price-support sentiment may weaken, so further substantial upside in the spot premium is expected to be limited in Shanghai. Spot supply in Guangdong, Tianjin and Chongqing is expected to remain tight, so spot premiums are likely to stay firm or even rise further.
According to Mysteel, refined copper spot premium ranges are forecast with Guangdong at Yuan 1,200-2,200/tonne, Tianjin at Yuan 1,800-2,800/tonne, and Chongqing at Yuan 1,100-1,600/tonne this week.
Supply: Maintenance and long-term contract priority tighten spot supply
China's refined copper spot supply tightened further last week. By market, in Shanghai and Guangdong, some smelters' shipments declined due to maintenance and output cuts, with material preferentially allocated to long-term contract deliveries and only limited volumes available for the spot market, while imported copper arrivals offered little incremental supply, with non-registered brands dominating inflows and registered-brand material remaining scarce. Meanwhile, spot premiums in Shanghai were notably stronger than those in Guangdong, likely to divert some material and further tighten Guangdong's tradable resources. In Tianjin, the local major smelter's maintenance continued with output yet to recover, and delivery schedules were pushed back overall, further tightening actually available spot material. In Chongqing, both long-term contract pickups and smelter arrivals slowed, leaving supply and demand both low. Looking ahead, although early-month arrivals may improve slightly in some markets, smelters' spot shipments will stay limited and incremental imported copper constrained, while the major smelter maintenance in Tianjin is not expected to fully end until mid-to-late November. China's refined copper spot supply is unlikely to improve significantly in the near term.
Demand: Record-high premium slows spot trading
China's refined copper spot trading volume increased slightly last week but remained at low levels, as copper prices trended lower while premiums surged in the opposite direction, significantly raising downstream procurement costs. In Shanghai, with spot premiums rising to a year-to-date high and backwardation spread widening simultaneously, downstream buyers grew markedly cautious, bargained hard intraday and shifted toward cheaper non-standard alternative materials, leaving transactions dominated by essential purchases and long-term contract deliveries. In Guangdong, downstream buying remained cautious. With many downstream firms scheduling weekend shutdowns, trading thinned to long-term deliveries and sporadic essential deals, and some may extend shutdowns or cut operating rates if premiums climb further. In Tianjin, high premiums suppressed buying sentiment, with actual deal premiums settling below offers. Delivery delays of up to one week lengthened procurement cycles, and downstream firms mostly executed existing orders, with new purchases confined to production essentials. Some preferred depleting existing raw material inventory instead of buying. In Chongqing, the gap between long-term contract and spot purchase costs kept widening, and local downstream producers' willingness to take spot purchase was minimal, with spot deals nearly at a standstill.
According to Mysteel's survey of 56 Chinese refined copper trading enterprises (including smelters, traders and downstream processors), China's refined copper spot trading volume was 100.6 kilotonnes between November 2-6, rising by 7.9 kilotonnes, or 8.51%, from the October 26-30 figure (92.7kilotonnes).
Looking ahead, spot trading is expected to remain dominated by essential demand in the near term. Although incremental end-user orders are still likely to be limited in the short term, copper prices may trend lower subsequently due to macro headwinds. If prices fall, downstream bargain buying is expected to modestly boost spot trading this week.
Import: Tight spot circulation lifts Yangshan copper premium to a record high
During November 2-6, falling prices in overseas markets improved China's refined copper import ratio, leading China's refined copper import trade to shift from loss into profit. As import profit continued to expand while relatively few shipments arrived at Shanghai's Yangshan Port, spot circulation tightened and holders kept their offers firm. The Yangshan copper premium therefore climbed markedly, reaching a record high.
Inventory: China's refined copper retail and bonded inventory decline WoW
China's refined copper retail inventory continued to decline last week. With smelter shipments showing little room to increase and inflows of imported copper as replenishment likewise limited, warehouse inflows remained constrained. Meanwhile, copper prices fell, and downstream consumption improved at times. As a result, inventory fell to a fresh low for the year. Looking ahead to this week, some previously delayed import cargoes have started to arrive, so inflows of imported copper are expected to pick up, while domestic sources should stay scarce. With spot premiums remaining elevated, downstream buyers are turning more cautious, and the pace of inventory decline is expected to slow.
China's refined copper bonded inventory also continued to decline. With domestic spot premiums staying elevated, cargoes at bonded warehouses were imported into the domestic market, and downstream buyers also took deliveries, further reducing inventory. Looking ahead to this week, port arrivals are expected to rise slightly, but with the import profit window open and premiums high, higher outbound volumes may keep bonded-zone inventory low.
As COMEX copper prices fell more sharply, the COMEX-LME copper price spread gradually declined last week, turning from positive to negative and hitting a low of -$207.03/tonne last Thursday. The weekly average price spread was $38.52/tonne over November 2-6, decreasing by $119.95/tonne week on week. The LME cash-3M settlement spread decreased, averaging $121.7/tonne for the week, down by $70/tonne week on week. Because the COMEX-LME copper spread narrowed and even inverted at times, copper inventory inflows into COMEX warehouses remained low. In contrast, although the LME backwardation spread narrowed, it remained elevated, and at times LME traded at a premium to other markets. Consequently, LME inventories rose more substantially. Looking ahead, the U.S. refined copper tariff ruling is a key factor shaping global refined copper inventory trends from Q4 2026 to H1 2027. If implemented as scheduled, COMEX inventories will remain high, while LME inventories are expected to stay in a tight balance due to tight non-U.S. spot supply. If the ruling is further delayed or weakened, COMEX inventory backflow and an LME inventory rebound may occur simultaneously.
More regular analysis and comprehensive data on China's copper industry are available in Mysteel Copper Weekly, Mysteel Copper Monthly, and Mysteel Copper Database. Reach out to us via Mysteel's official website: Latest & Reliable Copper Market Price in China | Mysteel, and follow Mysteel Non-Ferrous for more insights!
Written by Zhaorui Cui, cuizhaorui@mysteel.com
Edited by Mingyuan Wang, wangmingyuan@mysteel.com
