China corn price outlook 2026/27: rangebound on cost support and bumper output

Ahead of the new-season corn harvest, Mysteel conducted further research on China's 2026 domestic corn planting situation. In 2026, the national corn area is 41.75 million hectares, an increase of 1.14 million hectares compared with 2025. 

Changes in China's corn output generally follow the same trend as changes in planting area, showing an overall oscillating increase.

In 2021, China's corn output increased due to the influence of planting area. In 2022, corn output declined due to weather. In 2023, higher corn yields per unit area led to output growth. In 2024, output declined overall as some producing areas were affected by adverse weather. In 2025, corn output continued to increase, but quality was poor in North China, Northwest China and other regions due to weather.

According to research by the Mysteel agricultural team, 2026 China's corn output is 292.33 million tonnes, an increase of 1.04 million tonnes, or 0.36%, compared with 2025.

Looking ahead to the 2026/2027 new-season, the corn planting cost in Northeast China is Yuan 19,650–23,445/hectare, an increase of Yuan 2,700–3,600/hectare compared with the previous year, with the increase in land rental cost accounting for a relatively significant share. Costs for seeds, fertilizers and agricultural inputs changed little.

The 2026/2027 new-season corn planting cost in North China is estimated at Yuan 14,775–15,825/hectare, a decrease of Yuan 150–300/hectare compared with the previous year. On the one hand, land rental costs edged lower; on the other hand, higher yields per unit area also reduced planting costs to some extent. North China's lower cost line gives it greater flexibility in price competition, but also means that the profit margin for shipping grain out of North China is relatively larger.

Taking the above together, corn prices in 2026/27 are supported on the downside by planting costs but capped on the upside by bumper output and weak demand, overall presenting a range-bound pattern of "bottom raised, top limited". The Northeast cost line of about Yuan 0.96–1.01/jin serves as an important psychological floor for the market. However, slightly higher national output, increased output in producing areas outside the Northeast, and weak feed demand limit the upside for prices. Pay attention to the Northeast selling progress, the pace of policy stockpiling, and trading opportunities arising from the price spread between North China and the Northeast.