China's Biofuels in Its 2nd Curve
- Liquid biofuels is mentioned the latest "14th Five-year Plan of Renewable Energy (2021-2025)" issued in June 2022, by pushing forward more commercial projects, and expanding alternative use in the fields of heavy road transport, aviation, and bunkering.
- Fuel ethanol and biodiesel are developed into output volume of 2.85 and 1.5 million tonnes, respectively, by 2021. SAF has not been commercially produced yet.
- China has 30 active biodiesel producers with a total capacity of 4.47 mmpta as of 2022. Domestic market consumes a small piece of its biodiesel outputs. Shanghai, the first and only pilot city, offers B5 diesel in its retail network. The B5 biodiesel consumption was around 1,600 tonnes/day (584ktpa), equivalent to 80 tonnes/day (29.2ktpa) of BD100 biodiesel.
- 86% of the Chinese biodiesel outputs were exported to European countries, as the premium is higher than domestic diesel price. Export volume was 1.29 million tonnes in 2021, up by 42% YoY. Averaged biodiesel export price in 2021 is 42% higher than #0 diesel in domestic market over the same period.
- China's SAF capacity and demand of SAF remains at a initial stage, with operational capacity of 100ktpa at a trial production yield of about 15%. Domestic demand is insufficient compared with increasing export demand. It is estimated that China's SAF capacity will reach 1.1 mtpa by 2025, but the government's consumption target by 2025 is only 20,000 tonnes.
Written by the GL Consulting team (Mysteel's consultancy arm on energy transition): glconsulting@mysteel.com
Edited by Navy Liu: liuchuanjun@mysteel.com
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