Mysteel recently organized an on-site survey on several Chinese copper smelters in Yunnan and Guangxi provinces.
According to the survey, downstream orders for most smelters are continuously increasing currently. After the continuous optimization of epidemic control in China, the economic recovery momentum is strong, boosting market expectations for consumption. However, the tight supply of copper concentrate as raw materials has not been fully resolved, mainly relying on imports.
Smelter |
Annual Capacity |
Maintenance Plan |
Finished Product Inventory |
Viewpoint |
A |
520kt |
Has relocation plan |
- |
Maintain optimism about future downstream consumption |
B |
125kt |
Maintenance completed |
Almost zero |
Supply of copper concentrate is relatively tight, with two-thirds coming from imported long orders. Consumption peak season may continue for even longer with stable growth in electricity and real estate completion rates. |
C |
300kt |
No plan |
Almost zero |
Electricity restrictions have no impact on Guangxi. Consumption in industries such as new energy, electrical, home appliances, and infrastructure is increasingly improving |
D |
300kt |
No plan |
Almost zero |
The current shortage of raw materials has affected production. Maintain optimism about consumer recovery |
Data Source: Mysteel |
The economic recovery of China in 2023 will be a continuous process, reflecting sustainability and resilience. The National People's Congress and the Chinese Political Consultative Conference (NPC&CPPCC) held in March this year emphasized the need to focus on restoring and expanding domestic consumption, and introduced numerous stimulus policies to support demand for copper from multiple industries. Therefore, Mysteel expects that in the second quarter, the price of refined copper in China will mainly fluctuate in the range of Yuan 68,000-70000/tonne.
If you would like to join in this kind of on-site survey, please feel free to contact Paula Xu via xuzhongping@mysteel.com
Written by Edenlis Huang, huangting@mysteel.com
Edited by Paula Xu, xuzhongping@mysteel.com