The Shanghai Futures Exchange's (SHFE) warehouse warrants for copper futures fell by 6,387 tonnes day on day to 51,349 tonnes on May 19, leading to a week-on-week decrease of 7,924 tonnes or 13.37%, and a decrease of 28,432 tonnes or 35.64% month on month.
SHFE copper price fell to about Yuan 65,600/tonne today, while premiums of refined copper in East China fell by Yuan 100/tonne today.
The prices of non-ferrous metals first fell and then rose today, mainly influenced by various macro factors. According to the US Medium report, US House Speaker McCarthy stated that the House of Representatives is expected to review the debt ceiling agreement next week, and he pointed out that he can now see how the agreement will be reached. Michael Barr, the Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve responsible for regulating financial affairs, acknowledged full responsibility for the failure of US banks. Based on easing the macroeconomic crisis, the prices of non-ferrous metals were supported.
On the other hand, due to the hawkish remarks made by Federal Reserve officials again, the probability of further interest rate hikes in the US in June has increased to about 40%, while the expected rate cut in 2023 is less than 50 basis points. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a speech at tonight's "Monetary Policy Outlook" forum. Based on the views recently revealed by several senior Federal Reserve officials, market participants remain cautious about Powell's stance tonight.
In summary, the current copper price is mainly affected by changes in market expectations caused by macroeconomic events. However, it is difficult for copper prices to receive fundamental support during the traditional off-season of consumption from May to June, and copper prices are expected to run in the low range in the short term.
Data Source: SHFE
Data Source: SHFE
Written by Edenlis Huang, huangting@mysteel.com
Edited by Ting Ao, aoting@mysteel.com