Japan's October crude steel result offers sliver of hope
During October, the results for output by process contained some room for hope, with production by LD converter reaching 5.47 million tonnes, up 6.4% from September and by 3.4% from October last year, the second consecutive on-year monthly rise. In a comment the JISF said this reflected the growth in domestic automotive production now that parts shortages have eased.
More encouraging was the performance of the electric furnace sector where output topped 2.05 million tonnes last month. That this was 8.8% higher than September doesn't surprise as some mini-mills were still conducting maintenance on their melt shops and rolling mills in September while high summer power rates were still in force and only resumed production in October.
However, the 0.5% increase on the October 2022 EAF result – though tiny – marked the first increase in 15 months, suggesting demand for construction-related steel might finally be returning. "But it's almost flat, and we still need to wait and see for a few months to judge that demand for construction has improved," leading business daily the Nikkei, warned.
The same caution could probably be applied to automotive steel, Mysteel Global notes. Although production of hot rolled coils rose 1.4% year-on-year in October to 3.09 million tonnes, that of cold rolled coil and galvanized sheets – both heavily used in auto manufacturing – declined by 0.7% and 1.8% from the same month last year to 1.2 million tonnes and 732,300 tonnes respectively.
Industry sources say that Toyota Motor Group, Japan's largest automaker, has begun telling its network of component suppliers that it expects production at domestic plants throughput the Toyota Group – comprising carmaker Toyota Motor, mini-car maker Daihatsu Motor and truck maker Hino Motors – will average 13,700 units/day over 20 days in December. This represents a decline from the forecast it made in late September of 14,000 units/day for December, as reported.
Japan's April-October 2023 production of carbon steel items (selected)
Product |
April-Oct |
% chge YoY |
H-beams |
1,999,500 |
-7.9% |
Small bars (incl rebars) |
4,367,100 |
-4.8% |
Wire rods (ordinary) |
238,800 |
-2.7% |
Heavy plates |
5.077,300 |
-5.5% |
Hot rolled coils |
21,591,600 |
+3.6% |
Cold rolled coils |
8,198,600 |
-0.9% |
Galvanized sheets |
4,954,100 |
+4.4% |
Welded/seamless tubes |
1,857,900 |
-8.8% |
Unit: Tonnes
Source: JISF
Written by Russ McCulloch, russ.mcculloch@mysteel.com
Edited by Alyssa Ren, rentingting@mysteel.com
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