China PE industry will face rising market supply in September and October, considering the commission of newly-added capacities, production resumption, maintenance plans and import status.
PE Capacity Statistics in China (Unit: '000 t/y)
Region |
Capacity |
Shutdown |
Sept and Oct Production Resumption |
Northwest China |
8,750 |
990 |
990 |
East China |
7,355 |
250 |
200 |
South China |
5,890 |
220 |
0 |
Northeast China |
4,815 |
1,450 |
800 |
North China |
3,840 |
0 |
0 |
Central China |
1,160 |
0 |
0 |
Southwest China |
600 |
600 |
0 |
Total |
32,410 |
3,510 |
1,990 |
Source: OilChem
Baofeng Energy Group, a large-sized private enterprise in Northwest China, put its 400,000 tonnes/year coal-based HDPE unit into production on September 10, and several large-sized enterprises will finish their overhaul as scheduled in September and October.
China PE Maintenance Plan in Sept and Oct (Unit: '000 t/y, '000 tonnes)
Region |
Capacity |
Output Loss Estimate of Whole Overhaul |
Northwest China |
700 |
16.2 |
East China |
320 |
17.8 |
South China |
1,660 |
238.4 |
Northeast China |
0 |
0 |
North China |
60 |
1.1 |
Central China |
300 |
8.1 |
Southwest China |
600 |
108 |
Total |
3,640 |
389.6 |
Source: OilChem
During the traditional peak season, few enterprises choose to carry out maintenance in September and October, which has limited impact on the overall market supply.
China's PE Import Estimate in Aug and Sept (Unit: '000 tonnes)
Month |
HDPE |
LLDPE |
LDPE |
Total |
Jul Import Volume |
367.1 |
430.8 |
237.4 |
1,035.3 |
Aug Import Estimate |
410.3 |
495.3 |
245.6 |
1,151.2 |
MoM |
43.2 |
64.5 |
8.2 |
115.9 |
Sept Import Estimate |
427.5 |
513.1 |
255.4 |
1,196 |
MoM |
17.2 |
17.8 |
9.8 |
44.9 |
Source: OilChem
According to OilChem research, PE import volume in August and September will be on an uptrend, which will also increase the overall market supply.
Generally speaking, China PE industry will see a climbing supply in the golden autumn.
Written by Ariel Guo, gq@oilchem.net
Edited by Navy Liu, liuchuanjun@mysteel.com