CEC: China's power consumption to grow by 6% YoY in 2024

Consumption of electricity for households and industries throughout China is expected to increase by 6% this year from last year to about 9.8 trillion kilowatt hours, according to a forecast report released by the China Electricity Council (CEC) on January 30.

During 2024, the peak load across the country's power grid will likely exceed 1.45 billion kWh, representing an increase of about 100 million kWh from 2023, the CEC forecast.

The Council also predicted that by the end of this year, the country's installed power generation capacity should reach 3.25 billion kilowatts (kW), with coal-fired generating capacity likely to be 1.2 billion kW, its share dipping to 37% of the total from 39.9% in 2023. Meanwhile, the capacity of non-fossil fuel energy sources is likely to reach 1.86 billion kW, making up a larger portion of about 57% of the whole, it said.

Newly installed power generation capacity is expected to hit above 300 million kW in 2024 again – largely flat with the 370 million kW added last year – while cumulative installed capacity of new energy generation sources is seen surpassing that of coal for the first time, according to the CEC.

Meanwhile, solar power capacity is forecast to reach 780 million kW by the end of 2024, while that of wind power will reach 530 million kW. In addition, the combined installed capacity of grid-connected wind and solar power will exceed that of coal-fired electricity, accounting for about 40% of the total installed capacity, it said.

In the report, the CEC stressed that as China's supply and demand of electricity will likely be tightly balanced during this year's summer and winter peak demand periods, it recommended that several measures be adopted to guarantee secure and stable supplies of energy and electricity, such as keeping coal imports steady and reining in surging coal prices.

Written by Winnie Han, hanyueran@mysteel.com

Edited by Russ McCulloch, russ.mcculloch@mysteel.com