According to OilChem estimate, China's gasoil production is projected to be down 7.29% year on year at 53.95 million tonnes in the second quarter of 2024, edging up 0.71% compared with the first quarter. On the contrary, the gasoline production is likely to jump 4.72% year on year and 1.81% quarter on quarter at 42.30 million tonnes in Q2.
Source: Mysteel OilChem
Though the demand outlook turned optimistic entering 2024, the actual consumption of gasoil was slightly less than expected in Q1, based on the sales results of Sinopec and CNPC. Therefore, it is expected that the refineries will adjust their production scheduling in advance, especially when the refining profits have been poor at present.
In addition, the gasoil production was robust in the second quarter in 2024 amidst the economic recovery post the covid.
Source: Mysteel OilChem
In addition, domestic refineries are projected to carry out extensive maintenance in the second quarter, bringing down the average CDU capacities utilization rates to around 70%, down 2 percentage points from the first quarter.
Source: Mysteel OilChem
Written by Aggie Hu, huchenying@mysteel.com
Edited by Navy Liu, liuchuanjun@mysteel.com