According to data from the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China (GACC), China's exports of refined oil, including gasoline, gasoil, and kerosene, totaled 3.12 million tonnes in May, down 1.89% month on month (MoM) and 11.6% year on year (YoY).
The monthly fall in May was primarily contributed by gasoline, with the May exports contracting 11.90% compared with that in April amidst poor export margins.
Source: GACC
The exports totaled 13.81 million tonnes over January-May, falling 16.09% from the same period last year, GACC data showed. Apart from the annual fall in refined oil exports, the actual exports were persistently below the export scheduling partly due to lackluster export margins entering 2025, which discouraged the state-owned refineries with export quotas to export.
Source: Mysteel OilChem
In addition, the CDU capacity utilization rates of independent refineries have been below the levels in the same period last year in recent months, and the state-owned refineries prioritized the fulfilling of domestic demand.
Nevertheless, the refined oil exports have shown improvement post the geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East since the second half of June, which significantly raised the refined oil prices in Singapore.
Looking ahead, the first and second batches of 2025 refined oil export quotas totaled 31.80 million tonnes, reflecting a 3.64% year-on-year decline compared to the same period last year. Based on export performance in the first five months and domestic refinery operating rates, the total exports in 2025 are likely to show a downward trend, with the annual volume potentially dropping to 34.50 million tonnes.
Sources: GACC, Mysteel OilChem
Written by Aggie Hu, huchenying@mysteel.com
Edited by Navy Liu, liuchuanjun@mysteel.com
