Bahrain loses ground in India's alumina trade as China and France step up

The shift comes amid rising domestic alumina production and stabilising global market conditions, prompting Indian refiners to re-evaluate where and how they procure this essential input for aluminum smelting.

According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, India imported just 155,563 tonnes of alumina during the financial year April 2024 to March 2025, a steep 66.27 per cent decline from the 461,078 tonnes recorded the previous year. This dramatic drop reflects both improved domestic output and a changing approach to trade partnerships.

Monthly data further underscores this shift. Between January and May 2025, alumina imports totalled 52,308.58 tonnes, down 12.24 per cent compared to the same five-month period in 2024.

However, the monthly pattern highlights shift in India's procurement approach. May 2025 saw a notable surge in imports, reaching 13,874.4 tonnes, a 90.95 per cent jump from 7,266.13 tonnes in May 2024.

The sudden spike indicates that Indian refiners took advantage of lower global prices and better supply to build up inventories. This shows a more flexible strategy, with import decisions guided by current global trends and local production needs.

Bahrain's decline mirrors India's shift in sourcing

One of the most striking changes has been India's reduced dependence on Bahrain. Imports from the Gulf nation fell by 56.65 per cent, from 3,533 tonnes in FY24 to 1,532 tonnes in FY25.

Although Aluminium Bahrain (Alba) set a new production record in 2024 by producing about 1.62 million tonnes of aluminum, the country does not produce alumina domestically.

Instead, it imports alumina for smelting and, in 2024, faced tightening global alumina availability that restricted its export capacity. This contraction directly affected India's sourcing pattern, which moved away from traditional, volume-constrained suppliers like Bahrain.

China and France step in to fill the gap

In contrast, India ramped up its alumina imports from China and France. Imports from China increased from 27,663 tonnes to 33,517 tonnes, marking a 21.16 per cent rise. France also expanded its presence in India's alumina supply chain, with exports climbing from 994.23 tonnes to 1,628 tonnes, a sharp 63.73 per cent increase.

The United States contributed to this diversification as well, exporting 942 tonnes to India in FY25, a 28.61 per cent rise over the previous year. These shifts indicate India's strategic realignment, favouring suppliers that offer not only cost efficiency but also stable and reliable delivery, particularly amid a volatile global commodities market.

Rising local output and shifting global ties reshape India's alumina imports

This evolving trade pattern has been made possible in large part by India's expanding domestic production capacity. Refining projects like Vedanta's Lanjigarh refinery, now operating at its full 3.5 million tonne per annum capacity have allowed the country to substitute a greater share of its alumina demand with local output.

In FY25, Vedanta produced approximately 2.42 million tonnes of alumina, reflecting a 2.11 per cent year-on-year increase.

India's alumina production trajectory has been steadily upward in recent years, with national output climbing from 6.45 million tonnes in 2018–19 to 7.23 million tonnes in 2021–22. As bauxite availability has improved and logistics have become more streamlined, the country has been able to reduce its import dependency without compromising supply security.

Global market conditions have also influenced India's procurement behaviour. In 2024, international alumina prices were elevated due to supply disruptions in key producing regions such as Australia, Brazil, and Guinea. These disruptions pushed Indian refiners to turn inward and rely more heavily on domestic sources.

However, as global markets began to stabilise in 2025 and prices moderated, India responded by recalibrating its procurement strategy blending local production with targeted imports to take advantage of cost-effective opportunities.

India's current alumina strategy reflects a hybrid model: one that reduces long-term import dependence while maintaining the flexibility to respond to short-term global fluctuations. This dual approach allows Indian refiners to ensure supply continuity while optimising procurement costs.