MHP
Indonesia's MHP production reached 41,600 tonnes in Ni. content in September, down 3.10% MoM but up 29.94% YoY, according to Mysteel's survey of eight sample projects in Indonesia.
From January to September, the cumulative production of MHP in Indonesia reached 347,200 tonnes in Ni. content, an increase of 54.70% year-on-year. It is expected that Indonesia's MHP production will up 2.10% MoM to 42,500 tonnes in Ni. content in October.
Nickel Matte
Indonesia's nickel matte production totaled 28,800 tonnes in Ni. content in September, down 0.05% MoM, according to Mysteel's survey of 15 sample projects in Indonesia. This includes 21,300 tonnes of high-grade nickel matte and 7,500 tonnes of low-grade nickel matte.
From January to September, Indonesia's cumulative nickel matte production totaled 222,100 tonnes in Ni. content, down 14.31% compared to the previous year.
In September, Indonesia's nickel matte production is projected at 28,900 tonnes, up 0.42% MoM but down 7.29% YoY.
Cobalt Sulfate
In September 2025, China's cobalt sulfate production reached 14,074 tonnes, up 12.83% month-on-month but down 28.67% year-on-year. During this period, production of downstream ternary precursors increased, leading to higher demand for cobalt from the ternary sector. Additionally, some factories that had previously halted production for maintenance resumed operations, contributing to the month-on-month growth in cobalt sulfate output.
In October, China's cobalt sulfate production is projected to be 13,917 tonnes, reflecting a slight decrease of 1.12% MoM and a decline of 28.90% YoY. The cobalt sulfate market in October exhibited a mixed supply-demand dynamic. While demand from the ternary sector has provided some support for cobalt salts, the electrolytic cobalt segment faces significant challenges, including persistently high inventory levels and profit margins in negative territory, prompting smelters to continue production cuts. This resulted in a notable contraction in demand for cobalt salts. Furthermore, production line maintenance plans at some plants are expected to lead to a month-on-month contraction in output. Overall, cobalt sulfate production in October is anticipated to remain largely stable, with only a minor decline.
Cobalt Chloride
China's cobalt chloride production in September was 11,879 tonnes, down 22.01% month-on-month and 46.09% year-on-year. During the month, downstream demand for Co3O4 remained stable. However, sulfate-based Co3O4 currently held a significant market share. For electrolytic cobalt, some small and medium-sized plants reduced the production due to raw material shortages, while raw material prices rose faster than those of electrolytic cobalt. The electrolytic cobalt production continued to decline or even halt as immediate profitability was difficult to restore in the short term. Given that chloride-based electrolytic cobalt smelters were predominantly leading integrated enterprises, the cobalt chloride production experienced a notable decline.
China's cobalt chloride production in October is projected to reach 12,490 tonnes, up 5.14% MoM but down 38.11% YoY. In October, the downstream demand is expected to remain largely stable during the peak seasonal period for consumer electronics. With some cobalt salt smelters resuming operations after completing maintenance, overall market supply is anticipated to increase slightly.
Lithium Carbonate
According to Mysteel's survey, China's lithium carbonate production read 83,500 tonnes in September, rising 0.9% from the previous month. In September, the CATL-affiliated refineries in Jiangxi Province kept reducing the production, while those relying on outsourced feedstock raised the production on more tolling orders. In Sichuan, the production growth was contributed by arrivals of seaborne feedstock, in addition to others maintaining active production. The production in Qinghai and in the recycling sector was stable.
Looking ahead, China's lithium carbonate production is estimated at 84,900 tonnes in October, up 1.7% month-on-month, Mysteel's survey showed.
Specially, in Jiangxi, the integrated large-scale refineries will maintain stable operations, except for those experiencing production cut. The refineries using outsourced feedstock have seen an increase in tolling orders, spurring their production enthusiasm. In Sichuan and Qinghai, the refineries have kept their capacity utilization rates at a high level. Overall, the lithium carbonate production is anticipated to stay high in October, with mild increases compared with September.
Lithium Hydroxide
China's lithium hydroxide production stood at 26,300 tonnes in September, rising palpably with a monthly growth of 30.8% compared with August, Mysteel's data showed. The increase was primarily attributed to some refineries resuming the production from maintenance, and some others accelerating the production on more orders received. In addition, the export market was robust in September, contributing additional production growth.
Looking ahead, the lithium hydroxide production scheduling is estimated at 27,400 tonnes in October, climbing further by 4.2% month-on-month, according to Mysteel. In October, the refineries are anticipated to maintain active production, and the sufficient feedstock supply will also help increase the operating rates.
Ternary Precursor
China's ternary precursors production in September 2025 was 85,700 tonnes, up 12.36% month-on-month and 20.46% year-on-year. The traditional peak season continued in September, primarily driven by sustained high demand from CATL, coupled with increased export orders from some producers, leading to significant production growth.
The ternary precursors production in October is estimated at 83,200 tonnes, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 2.92% but a year-on-year increase of 22.73%.
Ternary Cathode Material
China's production of ternary cathode materials in September reached 81,300 tonnes, representing a month-on-month increase of 16.74% and a year-on-year increase of 39.94%. September, being during the traditional peak season, saw downstream demand reach a historical high. The continuous rise in demand from CATL, coupled with better export orders, contributed significantly to the notable production increase.
It is estimated that China's ternary cathode material production will reach 77,900 tonnes in October, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 4.18% but a year-on-year increase of 36.7%.
Cobalt Powder
China's cobalt powder production in September 2025 reached 761 tonnes, up 1.33% month-on-month but down 2.28% year-on-year. In September, orders in the downstream traditional hard-alloy field remained generally stable. Top-tier factories, leveraging their advantages in long-term contracts, maintained high operating rates, resulting in limited overall production fluctuations. The main market disruptions during the month stemmed from supply pressures on the raw material side.
China's cobalt powder production in October is projected to be 741 tonnes, down 2.63% MoM and 4.20% YoY. In October, the downstream sector continues to focus on inventory digestion, with procurement driven mainly by rigid demand with a cautious approach to the market. Coupled with high raw material prices and tight supply, smelters are facing pressure from mounting production costs. Therefore, the cobalt powder production in October is expected to slightly decline.
Electrolytic Cobalt
China's electrolytic cobalt production in September was 880 tonnes, down 31.82% month-on-month and 88.24% year-on-year respectively, Mysteel's survey showed.
In September, domestic cobalt intermediates were in short supply in the spot market, with prices continuing to rise. Smelters faced tight raw material inventories, while electrolytic cobalt was constrained by high inventory levels and weak demand. In this condition, profits remained negative, and top-tier smelters sticked to the production reduction strategies. Approximately 60% of smelters suspended the production, and integrated ones prioritized the production of other cobalt products, resulting in decreased supply of electrolytic cobalt in September.
China's production of electrolytic cobalt in October is estimated to be around 600 tonnes. Although a supply-demand gap for electrolytic cobalt began to emerge in September, domestic stocks are high, which are enough to fill up the supply gas in the short term. It is expected that the smelters are likely to maintain their production reduction strategies in October.
Co3O4
In September, China's Co3O4 production reached 10,269 tonnes, with increases of 4.68% MoM and 17.09% YoY. In September, Co3O4 producers still focused on tolling processing and the fulfillment of long-term orders. Meanwhile, the traditional peak season for consumer electronics led to an increase in downstream demand for Co3O4. Major industry players took the lead in raising their operating rates, which subsequently drove an overall increase in market supply, resulting in the observed month-on-month production growth.
In October, China's Co3O4 production is likely to decline 18.4% MoM to 8,380 tonnes, dropping 3.23% YoY. In October, the supply of cobalt intermediates is expected to remain relatively tight. Smelters will continue to prioritize the delivery of long-term contracts. However, with demand beginning to weaken in early October, the overall market operating rates will decline. At the same time, top-tier producers may find it challenging to maintain full-capacity production, and consequently, Co3O4 production in October is projected to decrease.
LMO
China's lithium manganese oxide (LMO) production totaled 8,600 tonnes in September, up 2.1% month-on-month.
LCO
In September 2025, China's lithium cobalt oxide (LCO) production reached 11,380 tonnes, up 1.34% month-on-month and 14.83% year-on-year. September marked the peak season for consumer electronics, supporting steady demand for LCO. Although actual supply remained primarily driven by long-term agreements, market expectations for tightening supply of cobalt intermediates intensified, thereby boosting cobalt prices. Against this backdrop, downstream battery cell plants not only engaged in rigid inventory replenishment, but top-tier ones also increased procurement to prepare for new long-term contracts, collectively driving the growth in LCO production in September.
In October, China LCO production is likely to reach 11,600 tonnes, increasing 1.93% MoM and 20.08% YoY. October remains within the traditional peak season, and battery plants are expected to prepare for order placements for the mid-to-late fourth quarter and early next year to mitigate risks associated with potential further price increases. Hence, LCO production is anticipated to maintain growth in October.
Iron Phosphate
China's iron phosphate production was up 7% MoM at 274,400 tonnes in September. Driven by the traditional peak consumption season in September and October, market demand saw a concentrated release. This was accompanied by continuously rising production of downstream LFP batteries and sustained high operating rates at integrated plants, with only a few individual enterprises facing inventory pressure.
China's iron phosphate production is forecast to rise further to 288,900 tonnes in October, up 5% MoM, attributed to the ongoing ramp-up of new market capacity.
LFP
China's lithium iron phosphate (LFP) production was up 11.62% MoM at 355,800 tonnes in September. September, a traditional peak season, saw robust performance in both the power and energy storage sectors, with market orders growing rapidly. Most companies maintained full production, and some LFP enterprises commenced operations at new production facilities in September.
China's Lithium iron phosphate production in October is forecast to rise further to 373,800 metric tonnes, up 5.06% month-on-month. The primary growth is attributed to production ramp-ups at certain LFP manufacturers and the validation and introduction of new products, while the majority of firms maintained stable and high operating rates in their production schedules.
Anode
China's anode material production totaled 226,600 tonnes in September, rising 5.86% MoM. The production of anode materials continued its upward trend, primarily driven by the peak season for downstream demand. Manufacturers ramped up production based on order volumes while simultaneously building up their inventory reserves.
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