MHP
According to Mysteel's survey of eight sampled projects in Indonesia, Indonesia's MHP production reached 41,200 tonnes in Ni. content in October, down 1.53% MoM but up 19.28% YoY.
From January to October, the cumulative production of MHP in Indonesia reached 390,000 tonnes in Ni. content, up 50.61% YoY. It is expected that Indonesia's MHP production will rise 0.99% MoM to 41,600 tonnes in Ni. content in November.
Nickel Matte
According to Mysteel's survey of 15 sampled projects in Indonesia, Indonesia's nickel matte production totaled 35,700 tonnes in Ni. content in October, up 26.05% MoM. This includes 29,800 tonnes of high-grade nickel matte and 5,800 tonnes of low-grade nickel matte.
From January to October, Indonesia's cumulative nickel matte production totaled 259,200 tonnes in Ni. content, down 10.75% compared to the previous year.
In November, Indonesia's nickel matte production is projected at 36,200 tonnes, up 1.53% MoM and 17.76% YoY.
Cobalt Sulfate
In October, China's cobalt sulfate production totaled 14,406 tonnes, with an increase of 2.36% MoM and a decline of 26.40% YoY. In October, the production of downstream ternary precursors increased, leading to a rise in cobalt demand from the ternary sector. Coupled with the resumption of production at some factories that previously halted for maintenance, the production of cobalt sulfate saw a month-on-month growth in October.
In November, China's cobalt sulfate production is estimated at 14,699 tonnes, moving up 2.03% MoM while dropping 21.64% YoY. In November, the market demand for cobalt sulfate has experienced a slight contraction, though the change is minimal. Smelters' production schedules remain relatively stable. Additionally, with the completion of maintenance at some production lines, operational rates have gradually returned to normal levels. Overall, the total output of cobalt sulfate in November is expected to remain largely little changed.
Cobalt Chloride
In October, China's cobalt chloride production reached 13,619 tonnes, with a MoM increase of 14.65% but a YoY decrease of 32.52%. In October, the demand for downstream Co3O4 remained relatively stable, with most smelters maintaining consistent production levels. The primary reason for the output increase was the resumption of operations at several smelters, which contributed to an overall upward trend in cobalt chloride production in October.
In November, China's cobalt chloride is expected to rise 6.07% MoM to 14,446 tonnes, with a decline of 26.67% YoY. In November, the cobalt chloride supply follows a logic similar to that of October, with production adjustments at some smelters leading to an increase in total production.
Lithium Carbonate
According to Mysteel, China's lithium carbonate production reached 89,300 tonnes in October, up 6.9% month-on-month. In Jiangxi, large-scale producers recorded a slight production increase as they outsourced a small amount of feedstock for production, while those with captive mines maintained stable production. In Sichuan, lithium refineries continued operating at high capacity utilization rates. In Qinghai, seasonal high production and the ramp-up of new production lines contributed to steady supply growth. In the recycling sector, leading producers also maintained stable production, buoyed by the rising lithium prices.
Mysteel's survey showed that China's lithium carbonate production is estimated at 93,100 tonnes in November, up 4.3% MoM.
It is expected that in Jiangxi, aside from a few mines continuing production cuts, large-scale refineries will gradually return to stable operation, and lepidolite-based producers will remain active in accepting tolling orders. Operating rates in Sichuan and Qinghai are also projected to remain high, with overall supply growth primarily coming from new salt lake capacity and a slight production increase from spodumene-based processors using externally sourced feedstock. While the lithium carbonate market faces uncertainty from potential safety rectification policies affecting mines in Jiangxi, the downstream demand will help sustain the actual production in November at a high level.
Lithium Hydroxide
China's lithium hydroxide production reached 28,400 tonnes in October, up 8.0% month-on-month, according to Mysteel. This increase was primarily driven by some producers raising operating rates due to increased orders for ternary materials, and accelerated production progression at new facilities. Stable deliveries of orders from overseas battery manufacturers also supported leading enterprises in maintaining high operating rates.
Looking ahead, China's lithium hydroxide production will likely rise 4.6% MoM at 29,700 tonnes in November. Additional new smelting lines are still in the ramp-up phase during November, although some enterprises may see limited production growth due to fluctuations in spodumene feedstock supply. Large-scale refineries in Sichuan have maintained high operating rates. The overall supply is expected to show moderate growth.
Ternary Precursor
In October, China's ternary precursor production moved up 6.65% MoM and 34.83% YoY respectively to 91,400 tonnes in October. The traditional peak season continued in October, primarily driven by sustained high demand across the CATL supply chain, coupled with growth in export orders extending into November, keeping production at elevated levels.
China's ternary precursor production is estimated at 90,400 tonnes in November, with a dropping of 1.09% MoM while an increase of 22.73% YoY.
Ternary Cathode Material
In October, China's ternary cathode material production edged down 3.9% MoM to 78,100 tonnes, with a decline of 37.1% YoY. In October, the industry-wide output failed to maintain its upward trend and experienced a slight month-on-month decline despite the traditional peak season with strong downstream demand, sustained demand from the CATL supply chain, and robust export orders. This is mainly due to concentrated production by a few smelters in September, which partly advanced the production.
In November, China's ternary cathode materials production is expected to stand at 80,000 tonnes, a MoM increase of 2.4% and a YoY rising of 45.4%.
Cobalt Powder
In October, China's cobalt powder production moved up 2.50% MoM to 780 tonnes, and rose 0.84% compared to last year. In October, orders from the traditional hard alloy sector, a key downstream market for cobalt powder, remained generally stable. Leading producers, leveraging their long-term contract advantages, provided strong support for the operating rates, keeping the production stable. Cobalt powder prices currently commanded a significant premium, and with most smelters having already secured their orders, the raw materials supply tightness had a limited impact on production during the month.
It is estimated cobalt powder production in November will decline 1.28% MoM to 770 tonnes, with an increase of 0.92% YoY. In November, the downstream market is expected to remain primarily focused on inventory drawdown, with purchasing activity likely to stay cautious. Coupled with high raw material costs and tight market supply, smelters are facing rising production costs and procurement pressures. Their primary focus will be on maintaining stable production to ensure long-term contract supply.
Electrolytic Cobalt
In October, China's electrolytic cobalt production went down 35.8% MoM to 565 tonnes, with a YoY decline 88.92%. In October, tight supply of spot cobalt intermediates in the domestic market put pressure on smelters to replenish raw material inventories. Meanwhile, the electrolytic cobalt market faced dual pressures of high inventory and weak downstream demand, leading to sustained losses. Against this backdrop, smelters generally sticked to production reduction or suspension strategies, with some further shifting production resources toward other cobalt products, resulting in a continued decline in electrolytic cobalt supply in October.
It is likely that China's electrolytic cobalt production will reach 480 tonnes in November, moving down 15.04% MoM and 91.04% YoY. Although there is a certain supply-demand gap in the downstream sector, the actual inventory digestion remains slow. Although cobalt plate dissolution has emerged as a new driver for inventory digestion, the currently slow dissolution has limited short-term effectiveness. It is expected that the price hike of electrolytic cobalt will continue to lag behind raw material cost increase in the near term. Consequently, electrolytic cobalt smelters are projected to keep reducing the production in November.
Co3O4
In October, China's Co3O4 production totaled 9,620 tonnes, with a drop of 6.32% MoM and a rising of 11.09% YoY. In October, the Co3O4 producers remained primarily focused on toll processing and the fulfillment of long-term agreements. Positioned at the transition between the peak and off-peak seasons, producers adjusted their production pace during the month. This led to a slight decrease in the operating rates of top-tier producers, resulting in a MoM decline in Co3O4 output for October.
The production of China's Co3O4 is expected to reach 9,100 tonnes in November, which is down 5.41% MoM and 0.24% YoY. In November, the supply of cobalt intermediates in China is expected to remain tight. Smelters will continue to prioritize fulfilling long-term contracts. With demand softening from the start of the month, overall operating rates are projected to decline. Leading enterprises will further adjust their production schedules, focusing on maintaining stable deliveries. As a result, Co3O4 production in November is anticipated to decrease.
LMO
China's lithium manganese oxide (LMO) production stood at 8,560 tonnes in October, falling 1.27% MoM and 5.20% from last year.
LCO
In October, China's lithium cobalt oxide (LCO) production reached 11,744 tonnes, a MoM increase of 3.2% and a YoY increase of 21.57%. In October, most battery cell manufacturers completed their stockpiling for the rest of 2025. LCO producers focused on executing long-term contracts and maintaining stable supply. As the period still fell within the peak season for consumer electronics demand, downstream demand for LCO drove material producers to increase the production. Consequently, LCO production achieved month-on-month growth in October.
It is likely that LCO production will decline 4.53% to 11,212 tonnes in November, with an increase of 19.91% YoY. The peak season for consumer electronics has passed in November, and the downstream battery cell manufacturers have already completed their stockpiling throughout end-2025. In this case, the LCO producers are primarily focused on maintaining stable deliveries, with supply levels adjusting to changes in demand. As a result, LCO production will likely record a decrease in November.
Iron Phosphate
According to Mysteel, China's iron phosphate production totaled 306,400 tonnes in October, up 11.7% MoM. Downstream market demand continued to strengthen, with record-high LFP production driving further increases in operating rates across the upstream iron phosphate sector. The operating rates of integrated plants remained at a high level, and the production scheduling of plants selling iron phosphate continued to rise.
China's iron phosphate production is estimated at 317,100 tonnes in November, up 3.5% MoM.
LFP
China's lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cathode production was up 11.21% MoM to 395,700 tonnes in October. In October, the energy storage market continued its positive trajectory. In the power battery sector, growth was driven by increased commercial vehicle production and sales, higher battery cell energy density, and the successful ramp-up to full capacity of high-density production lines by top-tier producers. These factors collectively pushed LFP output to new highs.
China's LFP production in November is forecast to rise further to 405,600 tonnes. Most producers have maintained full capacity, with orders for BYD suppliers experiencing slight growth. The overall operating rates continue to rise, and production schedules in November are expected to increase by 2.5%.
Anode
China's anode material production totaled 247,100 tonnes in October, rising 4.44% MoM and 40.96 YoY. Operating rates for anode materials remained high during the month, with leading enterprises running their production lines at high capacity utilization rates and small to medium-sized companies also seeing an increase in tolling business volume.
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