Here's how Europe's present aluminum foil market looks and what you can expect by 2030

European buyers took more than 6 per cent extra volume in H1, while shipments to markets outside the region jumped nearly 20 per cent. The scale of demand is clear from the consumption numbers: 1 million tonnes used in 2024, an estimated 1.05 million tonnes in 2025.

Export value up in Q3, but volumes tell a different story

The tone shifted as the year moved toward the third quarter. The EU's foil exports in Q3 2025 were valued at USD 483 million - higher than the USD 442 million recorded in Q3 2024 - but the tonnes shipped slipped from 67.82 thousand tonnes a year earlier to 66.08 thousand tonnes. 

Inside Europe, the pace had already been fading: Q2 domestic growth was only 2.4 per cent, compared with much stronger overseas growth of 20.3 per cent. Thin foil, widely used in flexible packaging, continued to find buyers abroad, with exports of <60 μm foil rising by about 26 per cent. Thicker grades (61–200 μm) also grew, though more moderately at around 9 per cent.

What slowed the market

Several forces pulled the brakes. Many converters and end-users had built up large stocks during 2024 and the early months of 2025, and by mid-year they were running those inventories down instead of placing new orders. Thin foil was the most exposed: deliveries of these gauges rose only 0.9 per cent in Q2, essentially flat.

Production costs added another squeeze as energy prices stayed volatile, raw materials became more expensive, and all these together pushed foil prices higher. In Germany, prices reached roughly USD 5,100 per tonne in September 2025. On top of that, manufacturers had to deal with delays in raw-material imports, tighter EU rules, and extra logistical expenses - higher port fees, customs charges and transport surcharges became common. Geopolitical tensions didn't help, adding uncertainty and raising transport-related costs.

Key customer industries were also feeling the strain. Coffee, chocolate and pet-food producers faced inflation-driven pressure on both consumers and their own input costs, which softened their demand for foil. Flexible packaging barely grew, and even the pet-food segment, which previously had been performing well, levelled off.

"We are currently seeing a normalisation following the exceptionally strong quarters at the start of the year," says Guido Aufdemkamp, Executive Director of EAFA. "While the domestic market is temporarily losing momentum, export markets continue to provide stability. Despite consumer restraint driven by inflation, aluminum foil remains in strong demand as a versatile and sustainable packaging material."

Economy and tariffs hit demand, but long-term use may still rise

The broader economic backdrop did little to support the sector. EU GDP growth for 2025 is expected to reach around 1.4 per cent, with the euro area at 1.3 per cent. Germany and France - two major markets - are expanding at only about 0.2 per cent and 0.6 per cent. With inflation still shaping household spending, demand for packaged goods has been more cautious.

Trade policy added another headwind. Tariffs on aluminum products, particularly those coming from the US and other partners, lifted prices even further. A study estimated that USD 22.4 billion added to the steel and aluminum import cost and up to USD 29 billion on derivatives, including foil impacted the supply chain.Then again, US increased the tariff to 50 per cent in June, which largely impacted the third quarter, though UK was not in the tariff list, but the other European countries suffered.

Combined with the rise in energy and transport costs, this fed directly into higher production expenses and softer domestic sales. Even so, the long-term picture remains positive. EU consumption is expected to grow from about 1.05 million tonnes in 2025 to 1.19 million tonnes by 2030, supported by continuing use in packaging and a strong presence in global export markets.