China wins the race against the US in aluminum recycling output, capacity and expansion

2015-2024: How production numbers reveal China's recycling takeover

After dominating primary aluminum, the numbers from 2015 to 2024 now show that China is decisively pulling ahead in recycled aluminum as well.

In 2015, China's secondary aluminum output stood at 8.98 million tonnes. By 2024, it is estimated at 15.84 million tonnes. That is a staggering 6.86 million tonnes of incremental recycled output in less than a decade - a growth rate of roughly 76 per cent. In nine years, China added twice the size of the current US secondary aluminum industry in net volume alone.

The scale shift is even more telling. In 2015, China's recycled output was already 2.6 times larger than that of the US. By 2024, it is more than 4.4 times larger. This is not convergence. This is structural divergence.

In primary aluminum, China used coal power, industrial scale and state policy to overwhelm global supply. In recycled aluminum, it is deploying the same playbook, with scrap replacing bauxite. The only difference is speed: scrap supply grows more slowly than smelting capacity.

From around 6 million tonnes in 2010 to more than 15 million tonnes in 2023, China has more than doubled its secondary aluminum output in just over a decade and now commands nearly 38–40 per cent of global recycled aluminum production. This trajectory reflects the tight alignment of industrial demand, decarbonisation pressure and government policy.

In 2024, aluminum scrap accounted for 59 per cent of total consumption in China's secondary aluminum alloy industry, down 17 percentage points from 2019. At the same time, scrap consumption in remelting billets rose to 24 per cent, up six percentage points, while the share of secondary plate and sheet jumped by 11 percentage points - showing a structural shift in downstream recycled product usage.

How the US lost ground in primary aluminum

In 2021, the United States accounted for less than 2 per cent of global primary aluminum production and ranked as the ninth-largest producer worldwide. Primary aluminum smelting is highly energy-intensive, with electricity accounting for up to 40 per cent of total production costs. As a result, the US has steadily lost competitiveness as a high-cost producer.

In 2024, domestic primary aluminum output fell to 676,000 tonnes, down from 750 thousand tonnes in 2023. Average daily production dropped to 1,850 tonnes, about 10 per cent lower than in 2023 and 13 per cent lower than in 2022.

Today, the world's leading primary aluminum producers are largely countries with structurally low energy costs, including Canada, Russia and the United Arab Emirates. By contrast, the United States has transitioned into a secondary-dominant aluminum economy.

In 2021, more than 75 per cent of the US aluminum supply came from secondary production. Recycling is also drastically more energy-efficient, requiring about 95 per cent less energy than primary smelting, reinforcing its economic advantage.

US secondary aluminum: A mature system at equilibrium

In 2015, the US produced 3.38 million tonnes of secondary aluminum. By 2024, output is estimated at 3.6 million tonnes. That is an absolute increase of just 220,000 tonnes in nine years - barely 6.5 per cent cumulative growth.

Broken down further, both old scrap and new scrap streams show only marginal expansion, rising by roughly 130,000 tonnes and 90,000 tonnes, respectively. This is what a mature recycling economy looks like: highly efficient, tightly optimised and fundamentally scrap-constrained.

The contrast between US and Chinese recycling trajectories is therefore not a story of superior American efficiency versus reckless Chinese expansion. It reflects two fundamentally different industrial positions. The US operates a near-equilibrium circular system where scrap supply, industrial demand and furnace capacity are largely balanced. China, in contrast, is still climbing its scrap availability curve, supported by a rapidly expanding domestic aluminum stockpile and an aggressive pull on global recycled material flows.

The rest of the world: Fragmented scale

According to 2023 market data, once China is removed from the equation, roughly 25 million tonnes of recycled aluminum remain, distributed as follows.

Other Asian economies (excluding China) produced about 7.1 million tonnes, or 17.5 per cent of global output, led by India, Japan, South Korea and Southeast Asia's fast-growing remelter hubs.

Europe produced roughly 5.94 million tonnes, or 14.6 per cent of global supply, backed by very high collection rates but muted volume growth.

North America (the US, Canada and Mexico) delivered about 5.78 million tonnes, or 14.2 per cent, reflecting another scrap-rich but volume-stable ecosystem.

The rest of the world - Latin America, the Gulf, Turkey, Russia, Africa and Oceania - together accounted for the remaining 6-7 million tonnes, under 20 per cent of global recycled supply. Set against this, China stands at about 15.8–16 million tonnes in 2024, while the US remains near 3.6 million tonnes. By 2023–24, the hierarchy is clear:

• China: 16 million tonnes, about 40 per cent of global secondary aluminum
• Rest of the world: 25 million tonnes in total, with no single bloc above 7 million tonnes

In 2015, global secondary aluminum output was about 27 million tonnes. China contributed roughly 9 million tonnes, the US 3.38 million tonnes, and the rest of the world 14-15 million tonnes. By 2023, global recycled output had increased by 13–14 million tonnes, and China alone accounted for nearly half of that net growth.

How China is scaling secondary capacity right now

China had 28 planned and newly built secondary cast aluminum alloy projects in 2024, representing 2.05 million tonnes of additional capacity. Of these, 16 projects entered production, adding 1.32 million tonnes and lifting total industry capacity to about 17.62 million tonnes.

Who feeds China's recycling engine?

In 2024, China exported 765,454 kilograms of aluminum waste and scrap while importing 1.78 million tonnes, underscoring the scale of its net scrap dependency.

Scrap is not fully available domestically in volumes sufficient to match China's secondary expansion. The system is therefore sustained by external suppliers, including the United States.

China's 2024 scrap imports are overwhelmingly concentrated in Asia. China, Hong Kong led with 13,995 tonnes valued at USD 26.5 million, followed by Thailand at 297260 tonnes (USD 9.8 million) and South Korea at USD 15.3 million, together accounting for more than 86 per cent of top-10 import volumes. Japan (USD 5.7 million) and Malaysia (208260 tonnes, USD 1.8 million) further reinforce how China's post-ban recycling system is now anchored in a consolidated East–Southeast Asian pre-processing corridor.

The United States ranks only sixth, supplying aluminum scrap to China in 2024, worth USD 630 thousand - a marginal share despite being one of the world's largest scrap-generating economies.

China is not replacing primary aluminum dominance with recycled aluminum dominance overnight, but the direction of travel is now unmistakable. With secondary output accounting for roughly 40 per cent of global recycled supply, and with 17.6 million tonnes of installed secondary capacity already in place, China has structurally locked recycling into its future metal balance. The United States, by contrast, has reached a recycling plateau - efficient, technologically advanced, but constrained by scrap availability, plant utilisation and a mature industrial cycle.

The contrast is no longer about environmental intent. It is about where incremental metal units will physically come from.