Why aluminum market is tightening and why prices may stay supported into 2026

In recent years, people often explained aluminum prices using familiar demand stories like construction cycles, auto production, sentiment from China, and seasonal buying. However, as we approach 2026, a larger factor affecting price behaviour is hard to overlook: supply is less flexible than it once was.

Even in a slower-growing economy, aluminum prices can remain elevated if the market lacks enough capacity to absorb shocks. This is exactly what we are seeing now: tightness driven by a mix of structural constraints and not just one-time disruptions. AL Circle's upcoming Global Aluminum Industry Outlook 2026 frames this