China's refinery maintenance slows while refined oil surplus looms in 2026

China's refineries face a growing refined oil supply surplus in 2026, as reduced planned maintenance equals to a crude throughput of around 70 million tonnes, while independent refiners may add another 17 million tonnes. With gasoline and gasoil demand expected to fall by over 17 million tonnes, the market could see a surplus.

China's state-owned refineries are expected to see less intensive maintenance in 2026, based on OilChem's survey, while the planned crude throughput has been largely flat compared with 2025. Among independent refineries, new projects coming on stream is likely to bring additional production, putting pressure on market supply especially when