NBS: China's primary aluminum output rises 3% YoY during Jan-Feb

Normally, the NBS consolidates production data for January and February to minimize distortions caused by the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday, which usually falls in either of the two months, Mysteel Global notes.

On a daily basis, primary aluminum output nationwide averaged 127,627 tonnes during the first two months of the year, rising by 2.9% on year, Mysteel Global calculated based on the NBS figures.

The increase in output was largely associated with the relatively higher operation rates among Chinese primary aluminum smelters during the two months compared with the same period of the previous year, market watchers said. Most smelters had maintained stable production over the period, even during the nine-day CNY holiday from February 15-23.

Mysteel's survey showed that the average capacity utilization rate among the 89 domestic smelters it regularly tracks reached 97.02% during January-February, up 1.15 percentage points from the same period last year.

During the January-February period, enthusiasm for production among the domestic smelters was also supported by stronger aluminum prices. According to Mysteel's price assessment, over the two months the national average spot price for primary aluminum ingots with a minimum purity of 99.7% was Yuan 23,803.5/tonne ($3,449.5/t) including the 13% VAT, up 17.3% from the same period in 2025.

The bullish market sentiment has lifted aluminum prices in both the spot and futures markets since the start of the year, with the mood buoyed by expectations of stronger base metals demand amid an increasingly uncertain global geopolitical environment. On February 27, the most-traded April aluminum futures contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed the daytime trading session at Yuan 23,835/t, higher by a large 15.5% from the price at end-February 2025.

Written by Iris Pang, pangjunyu@mysteel.com

Edited by Russ McCulloch, russ.mcculloch@mysteel.com