Indonesia's bauxite supply may fall short as aluminum and alumina capacity expand

The United States Geological Survey data of 2026 shows Indonesia’s alumina production at about 1.2 million tonnes in 2024, rising to 1.5 million tonnes in 2025. Bauxite production is estimated at 9.9 million tonnes in 2024 and 10 million tonnes in 2025. Bauxite reserves are about 2.9 billion tonnes.

At the same time, planned capacity expansion is much larger. Alumina capacity could increase from about 9 million tonnes to 29.8 million tonnes, while aluminum production could rise from 1.13 million tonnes to 14.9 million tonnes if all projects are completed. This creates a gap between resource supply and future