U.S.-Iran talks fail, naphtha supply-demand and pricing under dual pressure

The third round of U.S.-Iran talks collapsed on April 12, intensifying Strait of Hormuz disputes. The naphtha market faces triple shocks: supply tightening, price spikes, and trade flow reconfiguration. Domestic naphtha output fell 7.06% month-on-month, while ethylene operating rates plunged 14.56 percentage points, signaling synchronized supply-demand contraction. Short-term prices will stay firm with limited upside.

The breakdown of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks has disrupted Strait of Hormuz traffic, subjecting naphtha to supply tightening, price surges, and trade flow reconfiguration, with domestic output and downstream runs both declining. As of early April, domestic naphtha output dropped 7.06% from the end of February. Soaring feedstock costs and spring