Coal-based chemical boom set to reshape China LPG trade flows

China's coal-based chemical projects will be commissioned intensively over 2026-2028. Coal-based LPG marketable volume reached 1.80 million tonnes in 2025, accounting for 7% of the national total. Coal-to-chemicals are far more profitable than oil-based routes, with margins exceeding Yuan 1,000/t. New capacity concentrated in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia could reshape LPG trade flows, southern Xinjiang's outflows will shift southward, and the northwest trade hub may move toward Xinjiang.

Thanks to maturing domestic coal-chemical technology and low-carbon support, a wave of coal-to-olefins and direct/indirect coal liquefaction projects will come online in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi over 2026-2028. In 2025, coal-based LPG marketable volume reached 1.80 million tonnes, accounting for 7% of China's total LPG supply. The cost