Despite June rise, Japan's steel exporters are having dire year

But the June results hid a worse picture. The overall export total for June including semi-finished and specialty steel was higher by just 1.6% on year at 2.56 million. Moreover, the result took the January-June total for ordinary steel to 9.87 million tonnes (down 5.5% from H1 last year) and that for the grand total of all steel items to 14.21 million tonnes, lower by a larger 6.9% from H1 last year, the JISF numbers show.

That Japan's steel shipments abroad are declining is no surprise. A few weeks earlier on July 15 when Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) released its steel demand forecast for the current July-September quarter, the ministry cited several factors likely to hurt steel exports for the year as a whole.

The impact of trade measures against Japanese steel products is seen continuing amid growing protectionist moves in various countries, it observed. This, combined with uncertainty over the global economic outlook, means "steel exports are projected to fall below the year-earlier level," METI admitted.

"Close attention should continue to be paid to the impact of China's deteriorating steel supply-demand balance on neighboring markets, as well as developments in the Middle East," the ministry also warned.

Indeed, Japan's steel exports to the Middle East during H1 plunged by 51% on year while in Southeast Asia, Indonesia and Vietnam continue to expand domestic steel capacity, supplying more steel to an increasingly congested ASEAN market that was once Japan's to command, Mysteel Global notes.

In addition, "competition in East Asian markets will intensify as a decline in Chinese exports appears unlikely," a Japanese market source also noted.

The comment regarding Southeast Asia is significant because during January-June, Japan's total steel exports to Thailand – which vies with South Korea as Japan's largest export market – reached 2.1 million tonnes, 0.8% down on year, the JISF statistics show. During H1, Japan's exports of hot rolled coils there (for supply to Japanese-invested cold-rolling and galvanizing ventures for sale to Japanese-invested automakers in Thailand) equaled a mediocre 792,400 tonnes, up by only 3.6% on year.

During January-June, Japan's steel exports to its three major markets were mixed, with those to Korea rising 4.5% on year to 2.01 million tonnes, those to China falling 12.9% from first half last year to 1.02 million tonnes, and those to Taiwan plunging by 27.4% to 775,477 tonnes. Despite its tiny 0.8% dip, Thailand remained Japan's largest steel export market during the half, the JISF numbers show.

Meanwhile, in an ironic twist given the Trump administration's blitz on imported steel, the United States is seen as the only market where Japanese export volumes are likely to exceed last year's level this year. "Compared with Asian markets, exports to the U.S. are more likely to remain profitable, even after paying import tariffs, making it possible to for Japanese mills to maintain shipments above 1 million tonnes this year," the industry source observed.

The JISF statistics bear this out, with the January-June total to the U.S. soaring by 20.6% on year to 641,130 tonnes, with exports of rails, electrical steel, tinplate, and wire rods all rocketing on year. However, the outstanding performers were Japan's exports of semi-finished such as slabs and blooms where the total volume crossing the Pacific jumped threefold from H1 last year to 138,900 tonnes.

The bitter pill in the January-June results for Japan's steel industry is that if monthly export volumes this half continue at around the same level, Japan's full-year calendar 2026 exports would total just over 28 million tonnes – a recent record low.

During January-June last year, total exports reached 15.26 million tonnes, which helped produce a calendar 2025 result of 30.08 million tonnes. This was down 4.3% on year but still enough to keep the total volume over the 30-million-tonnes threshold. Total exports in 2024 reached 31.4 million tonnes and 32.36 million in 2023, according to JISF records.

Even if this year's H2 result is better than H1's 14.21 million tonnes, the full year total will still fall below 30 million tonnes, Mysteel Global notes.

Japan's January-June 2026 steel exports

Source: JISF

Written by Russ McCulloch, russ.mcculloch@mysteel.com 

Edited by Alyssa Ren, rentingting@mysteel.com