According to Mysteel's preliminary survey, China's ternary cathode material output reached 92,000 tonnes in August 2026, up 4.97% month-on-month (MoM) and 32.11% year-on-year (YoY).
The notable MoM rebound in August output was primarily driven by the industry's entry into the traditional peak-season stocking cycle for Golden September and Silver October, during which downstream battery cell manufacturers continued to ramp up production schedules. In addition, the official levy of the battery consumption tax, effective September 1, introduced a 2% incremental tax burden, prompting cell makers and OEMs to front-load part of their September-October orders into August production. This created a tax-induced front-loading window that provided a temporary boost to demand for ternary cathode materials.
Entering September, however, the rush-production effect has gradually subsided following the tax implementation, with the earlier front-loading having already absorbed some of September's orders. At the same time, ternary cells themselves face structural headwinds, weaker-than-expected sales of high-end extended-range electric vehicle (EREV) models have directly constrained the demand elasticity for ternary cells. Meanwhile, the continued encroachment of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) on the ternary market remains a critical factor to consider, with ternary materials now retaining only rigid demand in high-end pure battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and export-bound models. Taken together, against the backdrop of persistent substitution by LFP and a diverging end-demand structure, the near-term output of ternary cathode materials is still expected to remain under pressure.
In September 2026, China's ternary cathode material output is projected to reach 90,400 tonnes, down 1.74% MoM but up 11.2% YoY.
Edited by Cassie Li, lixiangying@mysteel.com
