Why Are China's Alumina Spot Prices Still Falling in August 2026?

China's alumina spot market stayed weak in August 2026, according to Mysteel data. The short answer: costs are rising, supply is still loose, and producers are not cutting output fast enough.

How Bad Are the Losses?

China alumina weighted average fully cost: RMB 2,864.65/mt, up RMB 38.44/mt MoM
Average industry profit: -RMB 153.65/mt, down RMB 89.44/mt MoM
Capacity underwater: About half of China's alumina capacity is now losing money on a full-cost basis
Cash flow stress: Some producers are even losing cash flow

Why Aren't Prices Rebounding?

Because supply keeps growing. No major production cuts or maintenance shutdowns were reported. Instead, two large alumina plants in Guangxi and Shanxi are ramping back to full output. At the same time, input costs show no sign of easing. Producers are focusing on cost cuts and maintaining production, which keeps spot prices drifting lower.

What Should Alumina Buyers Watch Next?

Chinese alumina refinery utilization and maintenance news
Bauxite, caustic soda, and energy costs
Output ramps in Guangxi and Shanxi
Whether loss-making capacity starts shutting down
Global alumina import parity and aluminum premiums

China's alumina market is stuck between rising costs and loose supply. Spot prices may stay weak for now, but deeper losses could set up future volatility. If you buy alumina or aluminum, watch for signs of forced supply cuts.