On October 7, Indonesia's Coordinating Minister for Downstreaming and Energy Transition and Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Bahlil Lahadalia said at the "Investor Daily Summit 2026" that the government plans to further tighten the moratorium on new nickel smelters producing semi-finished products, even though the relevant moratorium policy is already stipulated in Government Regulation No. 28/2025. Bahlil said the government will report to the President in the future to clarify which nickel industries should continue and which should be suspended, so as to avoid excessive exploitation of natural resources.
Bahlil pointed out that most existing nickel smelters produce only 50%–60% semi-finished products, not yet downstream finished products, resulting in raw materials being shipped overseas for processing and then imported back into Indonesia as finished goods. He said the government will consider "minimizing or even suspending the semi-finished industry" while focusing on promoting industries that directly produce downstream products, in order to achieve economic structural transformation. In addition to raising added value, the move also aims to prevent oversupply and maintain international nickel price stability.
Bahlil stressed that even if domestic smelter demand for ore reaches about 320 million tons, exceeding national output of 260–270 million tons, the government will not blindly satisfy all demand. "If we keep following smelter demand, nickel prices will inevitably fall, and neither the government nor entrepreneurs will be able to obtain maximum revenue." He said the government is prepared to regulate the output of operating smelters to stabilize prices and safeguard the country's long-term nickel reserves. He added that nickel and coal are non-renewable, unlike palm oil, which can be replanted, and must be protected sustainably for the country's future.
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources forecasts that actual nickel ore output this year will be about 290 million mt, higher than the 2026 RKAB quota of 260–270 million mt. Cecep Mochammad Yasin, Director of Mineral Business Development at the Directorate General of Mineral and Coal, said the forecast takes into account average nickel ore output through the third quarter and is not far from last year's actual output of 320.37 million mt. He said current smelter ore demand is about 320 million tons, but national nickel ore inventories at the end of 2025 were close to 40 million tons, which can fill the supply gap, so there will be no ore shortage.
APNI data show that nickel ore consumption from January to June was 120.6 million tons, equivalent to 46.2% of the 2026 RKAB quota of 260–270 million tons. APNI Secretary-General Meidy Katrin Lengkey noted that 422 active nickel mining IUPs currently supply ore to 79 smelters, including 55 RKEF pyrometallurgical smelters, 10 HPAL hydrometallurgical plants, 10 nickel matte producers, and 6 integrated stainless steel smelters. If all 79 smelters operate at full capacity, annual ore demand could reach 415 million tons. Meidy believes that the paper shortage of ore cannot be solved simply by comprehensively raising the RKAB, and RKAB revision approvals must be based on technical aspects.
