According to a preliminary survey by Mysteel under its new sample scope, China's ternary precursor output in September 2026 was 99,300 tonnes, down 4.61% MoM and up 13.81% YoY.
The MoM decline in September output was mainly affected by multiple factors. On the demand side, the recovery in domestic power battery demand fell short of expectations, and the Golden September, Silver October peak season was not strong. Some battery cell manufacturers cut orders, and ternary cathode production schedules were lowered. In addition, after the phase-down of purchase tax incentives, the demand pull-forward effect faded, and downstream procurement was mainly based on essential demand. On the supply side, the ternary precursor industry remained in a loss-making state, producers had insufficient willingness to increase output, and some producers voluntarily cut production to reduce losses. On the cost side, prices of nickel sulfate, cobalt sulfate, and lithium carbonate generally weakened, cost support collapsed, and bearish market sentiment intensified. In addition, LFP continued to take market share from ternary materials, and higher LFP production schedules further suppressed ternary demand. Although overseas high-nickel orders provided some support, they were unable to fully offset weak domestic demand. Overall, weak demand, loss constraints, weaker raw materials, and substitution competition jointly led to the MoM decline in September ternary precursor output.
China's ternary precursor output in October 2026 is estimated at 97,400 tonnes, down 1.41% MoM and up 3.11% YoY.
Edited by Cassie Li, lixiangying@mysteel.com
