Nickel Sulfate
In September 2026, China's nickel sulfate production recorded 215,500 tonnes in physical content, or 47,400 tonnes in metal content based on a new sample library comprising of 60 companies, down 3.01% MoM. Of this, nickel sulfate used for nickel plate production was about 7,600 tonnes. In terms of feedstock mix, nickel briquette and nickel powder accounted for zero, MHP 47.53%, nickel matte 39.93%, secondary nickel 10.85%, and NPI 1.69%. The production for October 2026 is expected at about 48,100 tonnes in metal content, up 1.46% MoM.
Downstream ternary precursor production schedules contracted in September, with weakening demand transmitting from the cathode to the feedstock side. Meanwhile, nickel sulfate used for nickel plate production was about 7,600 tonnes; combined with profit pressure, companies cut the production or switched to other products.
On the feedstock side, MHP and nickel matte together accounted for nearly 90%. This reflects the lack of economics for pure nickel and a feedstock structure adjusting with profits.
MHP
According to Mysteel's survey of 10 sampled projects in Indonesia, Indonesia's MHP production in September 2026 was 35,500 tonnes (in metal content, the same below), down 2.47% MoM and down 15.13% year-on-year.
From January to September 2026, Indonesia's cumulative MHP production totaled 317,400 tonnes, down 9.01% year-on-year.
The production for October 2026 is estimated at 36,000 tonnes, up 1.41% MoM and down 13.07% year-on-year.
Nickel Matte
According to Mysteel's survey of 15 sampled projects in Indonesia, Indonesia's nickel matte production in September 2026 was 24,700 tonnes (in metal content, the same below), down 13.66% MoM and down 15.00% year-on-year; of which high-grade nickel matte was 18,600 tonnes and low-grade nickel matte was 6,100 tonnes (excluding volumes already converted to high-grade).
From January to September 2026, Indonesia's cumulative nickel matte production added up to 305,500 tonnes, up 36.69% year-on-year.
Indonesia's nickel matte production for October 2026 is projected to reach 22,800 tonnes, down 7.82% MoM and down 40.58% year-on-year; of which high-grade nickel matte is 17,300 tonnes and low-grade nickel matte is 5,500 tonnes.
Cobalt Sulfate
In September 2026, China's cobalt sulfate production was 14,286 tonnes, up 4.58% MoM and down 9.31% YoY. In September, prices of both cobalt sulfate and its feedstock fell notably. Producers with better feedstock procurement timing saw some improvement in profitability, and overall monthly output edged up.
China's cobalt sulfate production in October 2026 is expected to be 13,935 tonnes, down 2.46% MoM and down 11.94% YoY. The dual constraints of feedstock shortage and weak demand have shown no improvement, and smelters lack the incentive to increase the production. Cobalt sulfate production schedules in October are expected to remain at low levels.
Cobalt Chloride
In September 2026, China's cobalt chloride production was 7,344 tonnes, down 15.37% MoM and 39.76% YoY. In September, the anticipated Golden September demand did not materialize, and new smartphone models did not bring notable demand growth.
China's cobalt chloride production in October 2026 is expected to be 7,244 tonnes, up 1.36% MoM and down 49.05% YoY. In October, producers' production schedules have not yet shown notable changes. Some loss-making producers have chosen to suspend the production, while others will maintain production in anticipation of downstream demand peak materializing in Q4.
Lithium Carbonate
According to Mysteel's survey, China's lithium carbonate production stood at 114,700 tonnes in September 2026, up 7.7% MoM. Compared with early-September production schedule guidance, final surveyed production for September was revised down due to tightening feedstock and falling lithium prices, which slowed the planned production increases at some lepidolite-based lines. The spodumene-based producers saw mixed output changes, roughly flat overall.
In October 2026, the lithium carbonate production schedules are set at 115,900 tonnes, up 1.1% MoM, a slower pace than September. Spodumene-based production will likely fall MoM, as maintenance plans due to feedstock tightness offset ramp-up gains from new lines. The lepidolite segment will rebound slightly on the back of restarts at some lines, though overall levels remain low.
Lithium Hydroxide
China's lithium hydroxide production in September 2026 stood at 35,300 tonnes, up 1.2% MoM. Lithium converters' production remained broadly stable in recent months, with some increment from capacity expansion, pushing output above early-month expectations. The overall capacity utilization rates held steady. Downstream ternary cathode material production schedules contracted, and procurement pacing was delayed.
The lithium hydroxide production schedule for October 2026 is 35,400 tonnes based on Mysteel's survey, up 0.2% MoM. Lithium converters' production plans have shown no obvious adjustment, while on the demand side, ternary cathode material orders have provided limited support.
Ternary Precursor
According to a preliminary survey by Mysteel under its new sample library, China's ternary precursor production in September 2026 was 99,300 tonnes, down 4.61% MoM and up 13.81% YoY.
The MoM decline in September production was caused by multiple factors. On the demand side, the recovery in domestic power battery demand fell short of expectations, and the Golden September, Silver October peak season was not strong. Some battery cell manufacturers cut orders, and ternary cathode production schedules were lowered. In addition, after the phase-down of purchase tax incentives, the demand pull-forward effect faded, and downstream procurement was mainly based on essential demand.
On the supply side, the ternary precursor industry remained in a loss-making state, producers had insufficient willingness to increase output, and some producers voluntarily cut production to reduce losses.
On the cost side, prices of nickel sulfate, cobalt sulfate, and lithium carbonate generally weakened, cost support collapsed, and bearish market sentiment intensified. In addition, LFP continued to take market share from ternary materials, and higher LFP production schedules further suppressed ternary demand. Although overseas high-nickel orders provided some support, they were unable to fully offset weak domestic demand. Overall, weak demand, loss constraints, weaker raw materials, and substitution competition jointly led to the MoM decline in September ternary precursor output.
China's ternary precursor production in October 2026 is estimated at 97,400 tonnes, down 1.41% MoM and up 3.11% YoY.
Ternary Cathode Material
According to Mysteel's survey, China's ternary cathode material production in September 2026 was 82,800 tonnes, down 9.98% MoM and up 1.87% YoY.
The notable MoM decline in September ternary cathode output was mainly due to weakness on both the demand and cost sides. Domestic demand for high-end electric vehicles (EVs) was sluggish, LFP substitution continued, and battery cell manufacturers cut ternary orders and actively destocked, leading to a contraction in production schedules. On the feedstock side, lithium carbonate and cobalt prices fell at an accelerated pace. Cathode material producers saw their finished product inventories depreciate, thus they prioritized destocking and postponed procurement, creating a negative feedback loop of price declines-destocking-production cuts.
Meanwhile, industry profitability came under pressure, and market players had insufficient incentive to increase output. Overseas high-nickel cathode orders remained somewhat resilient, but weak domestic power demand dominated the overall weakening. In the short term, the domestic ternary cathode market has remained weak, and a recovery in production schedules will require end-market recovery and feedstock price stabilization.
China's ternary cathode material production in October 2026 is expected to be 87,800 tonnes, up 6.02% MoM and up 10.68% YoY.
Cobalt Powder
In September 2026, China's cobalt powder production was 575 tonnes, down 6.23% MoM and down 4.49% YoY. In September, downstream demand showed no clear improvement, and producers generally remained cautious with a wait-and-see stance, leading to a slight decline in output.
China's cobalt powder production in October is expected to be 563 tonnes, down 2.09% MoM.
Electrolytic Cobalt
In September 2026, China's electrolytic cobalt production was 600 tonnes, up 36.36% MoM and down 31.82% YoY. Overall production in September remained at a low level, but a producer in Northwest China increased output in accordance with its group's plan, with its output rising YoY.
China's electrolytic cobalt output in October 2026 is expected to be around 730 tonnes, up 21.67% MoM and up 29.2% YoY. The electrolytic cobalt operating rate in October remains low. However, in addition to a producer in Northwest China maintaining output, another enterprise in East China has resumed production, mainly to provide toll manufacturing services for foreign companies.
Co3O4
In September 2026, China's Co3O4 production was 3,735 tonnes, down 10.43% MoM and 55.43% YoY. In September, downstream lithium cobalt oxide (LCO) demand remained persistently weak, with no recovery seen in end-use consumer electronics orders. Combined with producers' proactive production control and destocking, Co3O4 production continued to decline.
China's Co3O4 production in October 2026 is expected to be 3,580 tonnes, down 4.15% MoM and 62.79% YoY. Downstream demand is unlikely to improve in October. Falling prices have dampened producers' production enthusiasm. However, some producers still hold expectations for demand such as exports in Q4.
LMO
In September, China's production of lithium manganese oxide (LMO) reported 8,560 tonnes, a mild monthly fall of 0.35%, Mysteel's data showed.
LCO
China's lithium cobalt oxide (LCO) production in September 2026 was 6,280 tonnes, down 9.90% MoM and 47.80% YoY. Tight feedstock supply constrained the room for production increases. Although downstream battery cell manufacturers maintained on-demand procurement, large-scale restocking had not yet begun, with deliveries mainly under long-term agreements. The market remained in a wait-and-see posture, and short-term output lacked clear momentum for a notable increase.
China's LCO production in October 2026 is expected to be 6,520 tonnes, up 3.82% MoM and down 44.48% YoY. Demand did not pick up in September. However, given lackluster demand throughout the first three quarters, producers are pinning their hopes on the fourth quarter. Production schedules have not continued to decline, and a small number of previously shut-down producers are resuming limited production in October.
LFP
China's lithium iron phosphate (LFP) production was 603,200 tonnes in September 2026, up 4.78% MoM, based on Mysteel's survey. Most industry players ran at full capacity, though actual output at some LFP cathode plants fell short of expectations due to production line issues.
In October 2026, the LFP production is expected to rise to 625,000 tonnes, up 3.61% MoM. Capacity continues to ramp in Sichuan, Inner Mongolia, and Hubei, though some enterprises have slowed capacity commissioning and ramp-up due to production line testing, feedstock supply constraints, and margin pressure; meanwhile, toll-processing order volumes have risen.
Iron Phosphate
China's iron phosphate production came in at 415,500 tonnes in September 2026, up 3.41% MoM. Capacity in Hubei, Sichuan, and other regions continued to ramp up, with overall supply remaining tight.
Anode
Based on Mysteel OilChem's survey, China's anode material production read 383,300 tonnes in September 2026, up 38.58% YoY and 0.87% MoM, with an average capacity utilization rate of 83.33%, up 0.16 percentage points MoM.
In detail, the downstream demand entered the "Golden September, Silver October" peak season, with power and energy storage orders rising, lifting demand and driving anode material supply higher. Anode capacity utilization rate also hit a five-year high. Leading producers ran at full capacity and sales, with unabated demand supporting high output, though insufficient graphitization capacity capped further gains.
In October, anode capacity utilization rate is expected to rise about 0.17 percentage points to 83.5%, with anode production increasing by about 500 tonnes to around 383,800 tonnes.
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