Arif Perdana Kusumah, Chairman of the Indonesian Nickel Industry Forum (FINI), told CNBC Indonesia on Wednesday (October 14, 2026) that Indonesia now controls about 60% of global nickel supply. In 2025, Indonesia's total nickel output reached 2.5 million mt of semi-finished products, of which 2.05 million mt were NPI, FeNi, and Matte products, and another 450,000 mt were MHP and nickel sulfate. In 2025, Indonesia's total nickel refining facility capacity exceeded 2.7 million mt of nickel.
Arif expects Indonesia's total processed nickel output to fall by about 3.5%–4% year-on-year in 2026, but capacity is expected to surge again in 2027, mainly driven by HPAL-based hydrometallurgical nickel smelting projects entering commissioning and full operation. He expects Indonesia's MHP capacity to rise significantly by the end of 2027, exceeding 900,000 mt of nickel.
Separately, Tri Winarno, Director General of Mineral and Coal at the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM), previously stated that the 2026 RKAB nickel ore quota will remain at 260–270 million mt per year, and the government will not significantly increase output, only selectively meeting the needs of smelters still short of ore, to prevent oversupply from driving prices down. The deadline for companies to submit quota revision or increase applications is July 31, 2026.
