On October 22, Indonesia's National Economic Council (DEN) stated that the nickel production cut policy implemented through the RKAB in 2026 successfully achieved "lower volume, higher price," significantly boosting state revenue and product added value while protecting resource reserves.
Seto, Executive Secretary of DEN, pointed out that affected by policy regulation, the average LME nickel price from January to August 2026 rose 15% year-on-year to US $17,494/t. Although export volume fell by about 4%, nickel export value increased by about 17% during the same period. In addition, the pricing power of Indonesian nickel intermediates (MHP) has significantly improved, with its discount to LME sharply narrowing from 21% in 2024 to 10% in 2026.
DEN forecasts that Indonesia's full-year nickel export value in 2026 will reach US $39.7 billion, up 28% from 2024 (export volume only increased by 13%). Seto emphasized that as the supplier of two-thirds of the world's nickel, Indonesia has effectively prevented a price crash caused by market oversupply by controlling the supply pace, and it is expected that the non-tax state revenue (PNBP) of the nickel subsector will exceed its target this year.
