Podcast - China LNG market weekly takeaway: surging prices lift plant profits, but demand resistance is building

China's LNG prices surged again last week, and producers are finally back in the black, but demand is starting to push back.

Tight supply from plant maintenance and coke-oven-gas restrictions, combined with lean upstream inventories, gave producers room to raise offers. Inner Mongolia plants swung from recent losses to profits of over 450 yuan per tonne. Meanwhile, imported LNG got far more expensive, with spot landed costs jumping over 11% in a single week, pushing the spot import margin to roughly -4,460 yuan per tonne. With prices now stretched and downstream buyers resistant to further increases, the market looks set to pull back in the week ahead.

Key takeaways

Producer margins snapped back hard. Inner Mongolia LNG plants swung to 450+ yuan per tonne profit as tight supply let prices run.
Producer margins rebounded sharply, but rising prices are meeting resistance. LNG lost its cost edge over pipeline gas for industrial users, and long-distance arbitrage routes shrank from 6 to just 2.
Prices are forecast to reverse next week, with ex-plant levels expected to ease back toward 6,000 yuan per tonne as maintenance ends and demand growth slows.

For the full analysis and data behind today's discussion, contact us at inquiries@mysteel.com for a trial read of the latest China LNG Market Weekly Report by Mysteel OilChem.

For more market intelligence on China's LNG market, including supply-demand dynamics, pricing trends, and industry developments, visit mysteel.net.

Listen to the full episode on Spotify now:

https://open.spotify.com/episode/6ioF34R2TFsu46l1oh8mAF?si=4v2C19oKRbWWngpg81dw0A