Podcast - China oil market outlook: refined product exports set to rise towards year-end, led by gasoline and jet fuel

China's refined oil product exports are set to stay high through November and December, led by gasoline and jet fuel, as extra export quotas and recovering refinery runs open more room.

The Ministry of Commerce added close to 6 million tonnes of export quotas in late October, lifting the 2026 total to about 42 million tonnes. Planned November exports are close to 5 million tonnes, with jet fuel the largest share, while diesel stays held back by firm domestic demand and low inventories.

Key takeaways:

• Quotas give room, not a guarantee. Refiners hold close to 16 million tonnes of nominal quota for the last two months, but actual shipments depend on domestic supply, product inventories and export margins.
• Gasoline and jet fuel lead the increase. Soft domestic demand and decent export margins support both, while diesel is limited by seasonal demand and low inventories.
• Refinery runs and crude arrivals are recovering. Daily crude throughput is expected to edge up about half a percent in November, with a further rise in December. Crude arrivals in the second week of November could be the highest since mid-March, though heavy PetroChina maintenance and geopolitical risks remain.

For the full analysis and data behind today's discussion, contact us at inquiries@mysteel.com. Feel free to request the table of contents and sample pages of the China Oil Market Outlook Monthly Report by GL Consulting, a monthly update on 12-month supply and demand forecasts for crude, gasoline and diesel, including crude imports and gasoline and diesel exports.

For more market intelligence on China's oil market, including supply-demand dynamics, pricing trends, and industry developments, visit mysteel.net.

Listen to the full episode on Spotify now: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0llw7zodiJyDhGYqUklNB9?si=hQsPQXFtRBC7_m5KgGKdbg&nd=1&dlsi=014edd6e9b1b41bb