It is reported that the preparation of lithium iron phosphate and lithium extraction technology will soon likely be restricted from export, according to a notice released on January 2, 2025 by the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China, together with the Ministry of Science and Technology, stating that the government will adjust the Catalogue of Technologies Prohibited and Restricted from Export in China in accordance with the Foreign Trade Law and the Regulations on the Administration of Technology Import and Export.
Based on the regulation, technologies restricted from export must apply for a technology export license from the administration of commerce at provincial level after the cooperation agreement is duly executed.
According to the notice, lithium iron phosphate and lithium manganese iron phosphate preparation technologies to be restricted from export are classified based on compact density. That is, the lithium iron phosphate material is with a powder compact density ≥ 2.58g/cc at 300MPa, reversible capacity ≥ 160mAh/g at 0.1C, and first coulombic efficiency ≥ 97%. And the lithium manganese iron phosphate material is with a powder compact density ≥ 2.38g/cc at 300MPa, first coulombic efficiency ≥ 90% at 0.1C, reversible capacity ≥ 155mAh/g at 0.1C, average voltage ≥ 3.85V at 0.1C, 1C discharge capacity retention rate ≥ 97%, and 2C discharge capacity retention rate ≥ 95%.
These regulations primarily impact high-end lithium iron phosphate products, particularly fourth-generation and above. In contrast, LFP products with standard compact density remain unaffected. Currently, companies like Yuneng, Fulin, Dynanonic, Lopal, Wanrun, and Anda are actively developing fourth-generation LFP products. Among them, Fulin and Yuneng have achieved mass production.
In addition, the regulation will restrict the export of lithium extraction technologies, including those for producing lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide from spodumene, as well as lithium extraction from brine sources. This regulation is expected to significantly affect the development timeline of Argentina's salt lake lithium projects, and lithium carbonate prices are projected to fluctuate between Yuan 65,000 and 90,000/tonne in 2025.
As high-cost lithium carbonate producers may face profit compression, global supply will increasingly rely on production from China's Qinghai and Argentina's salt lakes. Argentina's lithium supply is expected to rise from 71,000 tonnes LCE in 2024 to 117,000 tonnes LCE by 2025. However, the restriction of lithium extraction technology exports will notably affect projects in Argentina that rely on Chinese technology.
Written by Aggie Hu, huchenying@mysteel.com, Cora Ji, jiruyan@mysteel.com
