China's lithium-ion battery recycling market experienced weak supply and demand during the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday in 2025, with prices remaining stable for the lack of market transactions. Most hydrometallurgical plants and black mass producers suspended the operations during the holiday, with the production expected to gradually resume after February 10. A small number of enterprises maintained low operating rates during the holiday to deliver the orders.
In terms of market transactions, the market stalled in the last trading week before the holiday, as downstream manufacturers had completed their inventory preparations, which was used for post-holiday production or operations during the holiday that were kept at a low level.
Currently, the post-holiday market transactions have yet to pick up, with most market players adopting a wait-and-see attitude concerning the prices.
Nevertheless, the shortage of raw materials remains the challenge centering the lithium-ion battery recycling market. According to Mysteel's survey, China's battery scrap supply totaled approximately 0.8 million tonnes through 2024, against a combined treatment capacity of up to 2.8 million tonnes/year, which is expected to ramp up to 3.8 million tonnes/year in 2025 with players positioning in advance before the battery retirement tide begins.
In this case, importing black mass from the overseas market has been considered a way to ease the domestic supply shortage, especially after China introduced the national standard for black mass (GBT 45203-2024) in December 2024, which is scheduled to take effect on July 1, 2025. The standard is widely regarded as a signal of China mulling over allowing black mass import. And there is also rumor that the relatively government departments have been working on the regulations over black mass import. It is likely that there be solid progress in the first half of this year.
However, it remains unclear whether importing black mass could effectively address the domestic raw material supply shortage. For one thing, the available black mass overseas has been minimal compared with the large capacity in operation in China. Second, the national standard for black mass has set up high requirements for black mass, especially the content of water-soluble fluoride as is shown in the image below. In other words, the black mass needs further treatment in order to meet the latest standard, which requires additional care for environmental impact.
Source: Lithium-ion Battery Black Mass Standard GBT 45203-2024
Nevertheless, should the black mass import be allowed, it will greatly promote the cross-country cooperation in terms of battery recycling, which is eagerly looked forward to by the market players.
Written by Aggie Hu, huchenying@mysteel.com
