While headlines often focus on headline GDP figures, China's oil demand outlook is increasingly shaped by deeper undercurrents-from evolving growth models to energy mix restructuring. As of 2024, a fundamental decoupling is taking place between economic expansion and fossil fuel consumption, forcing strategists to re-evaluate traditional demand forecasting methods.
This white paper analyzes China's macroeconomic growth trajectories and energy consumption patterns, and explains how structural drivers-policy, sectoral shifts, and decarbonization efforts-are reshaping oil demand through 2030.
1 | Macroeconomic Trend Shift: Structural Adjustment in Growth Drivers
In 2024, China's GDP grew by 5.0%, with Q4 accelerating to 5.4%, indicating a "V-shaped rebound." Despite global volatility, domestic growth was supported by consumption, while exports played a smaller role. Investment momentum was mixed-slowing real estate spending was offset by strong infrastructure activity, particularly in energy, chemicals, and advanced manufacturing.
Looking ahead, China's 2025 GDP growth is projected to slow to 4.2%. External uncertainties are increasing, particularly due to intensifying U.S.-China trade tensions. At the same time, domestic policy is tilting toward structural stabilization, with strengthened fiscal discipline and "a moderate, targeted approach" to stimulus.
China's GDP Growth Forecast
Source: GL Consulting
Over the longer horizon (2026–2030), China's economic model will likely transition from infrastructure-led expansion to "high-quality development." Priorities will include scientific and technological innovation, productivity enhancement, and gradual institutional reforms. Growth may become more balanced, but also structurally slower-creating a less energy-intensive trajectory that places downward pressure on traditional oil consumption.
2 | Energy Mix Shift: Declining Oil and Gas Share
Energy structure is a key leading indicator for oil demand trends. In 2024, China's primary energy consumption totaled 4.96 billion tonnes of standard coal equivalent, up 4.2% YoY. While coal remains dominant, non-fossil energy accounted for 20.7%, surpassing oil for the first time (oil's share was 17.4%).
By 2030, the official target is to lift non-fossil fuels to 27.5%, natural gas to 10.7%, and reduce oil's share to 15.9% of total energy consumption. This trend is driven by a dual policy focus on emissions reduction and energy security, including:
- Rapid solar and wind deployment
- Continued electrification of transport
- Aggressive emissions-reduction policies
- Industrial energy efficiency mandates
Oil is gradually shifting from being a "growth cornerstone" to a "balancing fuel," especially as decarbonization efforts intensify and energy security priorities shift toward renewables and natural gas.
China's Primary Energy Consumption Structure (2024 vs 2030e)
Source: NBS, GL Consulting
3 | Oil Demand Dynamics: Aggregate Contraction and Structural Realignment
Total apparent oil product consumption in 2024 was 758.8 million tonnes, a 2.3% decline YoY. This contraction reflects both demand-side substitution (NEVs, LNG trucks) and supply-side export adjustments.
In 2025, consumption is expected to decline further to 744.7 million tonnes, as substitution effects continue to intensify. From 2026 to 2030, oil demand will likely fluctuate between 750–755 million tonnes, with periodic rebounds linked to aviation recovery or policy adjustments, but no sustained uptrend.
More importantly, a structural split is emerging:
- Downward pressure on gasoline and diesel usage due to EV penetration and freight modal shifts
- Resilient demand for naphtha and LPG, driven by chemical sector feedstock needs
- Jet fuel shows cyclical recovery, but remains below pre-COVID levels
- Fuel oil continues structural decline, with only LSFO bunkering maintaining demand
Export markets are expected to play an increasingly important role in balancing domestic oversupply, particularly for gasoline and diesel. However, changes in tax rebates, blending rules, and emissions compliance will inject more volatility into export-driven refinery planning.
4 | Strategic Implications: From Forecasting to Repositioning
The macroeconomic transition underway will have deep implications for energy companies, traders, and policymakers:
- Demand forecasting is shifting beyond GDP elasticity models, with scenario-based, sector-specific approaches gaining traction.
- Portfolio planning is increasingly shaped by non-fossil demand substitution and its implications for product mix.
- Refinery strategies are gradually shifting from volume-driven models to margin-oriented configurations, with chemical integration becoming critical.
- Policymakers are increasingly challenged by a shifting fiscal base as fuel-related taxes gradually erode.
The next chapter of China's oil market will not be defined by volume growth, but by reallocation, optimization, and resilience-building under structural change.
Click here to access full forecasts, datasets, and interactive visuals.
