Nickel sulfate:
Nickel sulfate prices continued upward trend throughout the third quarter starting from late July. According to Mysteel survey, as of September 25, the midpoint price for battery-grade nickel sulfate crystal stood at Yuan 27,950/tonne, up Yuan 400/tonne from August. The midpoint price for battery-grade nickel sulfate liquid was Yuan 27,750/tonne, an increase of Yuan 900/tonne from August, while the midpoint price for electroplating-grade nickel sulfate reached Yuan 28,950/tonne, rising by Yuan 700/tonne compared to August.
Source: Mysteel
On the fundamentals, entering September, nickel sulfate producers that had previously halted or reduced production gradually resumed capacity, indicating a potential supply increase in China for the fourth quarter. Mysteel survey noted that following the resumption of production lines at a leading nickel salt plant in North China in October, nickel sulfate supply is expected to grow. In August 2025, China's nickel sulfate production stood at 206,000 tonnes in August, or 45,300 tonnes in Ni. content, up 6.37% month on month (MoM). Production for September is forecast at 47,100 tonnes in Ni. content, up 3.87% MoM.
Source: Mysteel
Ternary precursor production saw a significant increase in August and September. Sustained demand for nickel sulfate led ternary precursor enterprises to continue inquiry-based purchases and transactions for pre-holiday stocking ahead of the National Day holiday. According to Mysteel, some nickel salt plants still had limited inventories available for spot trading. While making weekly inquiries and transactions, ternary precursor companies also factored in considerations such as nickel sulfate quality, delivery methods, and transportation distance. Spot supply of nickel sulfate in the merchant market remained tight. Furthermore, to fulfill existing long-term contracts, some salt plants resorted to external procurement of nickel sulfate to supplement their own shortfalls. These combined demand factors contributed significantly to the price increase. Mysteel surveys indicated transactions were concluded around Yuan 28,000/tonne, with prices projected to have a further upside of Yuan 400-500/tonne post-holiday. In the short term, demand from the new energy vehicle industry is expected to maintain its momentum, remaining a key force supporting nickel sulfate market demand.
Source: Mysteel
On the cost front, nickel sulfate prices recently remained elevated, pressured by high costs of MHP, which in turn stemmed from persistently high nickel ore and sulfur prices. Increased stainless steel production in September and October boosted demand for nickel pig iron (NPI), driving its price up. This prompted some high-grade nickel matte production lines to switch back to producing NPI, consequently limiting any potential supply increase from nickel matte. Supported by its own demand, nickel sulfate producers had to opt for high-priced MHP. Thus, with production costs providing strong support, nickel sulfate prices were unlikely to follow a downward trend in October.
According to Mysteel, MHP supply is currently tight. Some traders have already completed order bookings for October, while others hold limited MHP volumes, with some even having no stock available. Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, factors such as seasonal demand weakness in the traditional off-season and the release of nickel ore production from Indonesia may potentially push nickel prices lower.
China's nickel sulfate imports stood at 30,292.611 tonnes in August, up 78.87% month-on-month (MoM) and 32.17% year-on-year (YoY), based on data from the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China (GACC). From January to August, the total nickel sulfate imports reached 160,189.381 tonnes, up 7.21% year-on-year.
Source: Mysteel
China maintains a heavy reliance on imports of key nickel sulfate production raw materials, such as nickel ore and MHP. Despite continued domestic capacity expansion, robust demand for nickel sulfate has resulted in persistent supply tightness within China. Consequently, imports of nickel sulfate are expected to remain necessary during September-October to bridge the demand gap. An increase in nickel sulfate imports is anticipated after the National Day holiday period.
Entering October, nickel sulfate market prices are expected to remain stable with a potential for increase, projected to trade within a range of Yuan 28,100-28,400/tonne. However, moving into November and December, expectations of inventory accumulation for refined nickel coupled with the onset of the demand off-season are likely to lead to weaker consumption. This is anticipated to shift the price center of gravity for nickel lower, prompting subsequent adjustments in nickel sulfate prices. It is noteworthy that the planned discontinuation of the purchase tax subsidy for new energy vehicles in 2026 is expected to stimulate downstream demand earlier. Automakers may accelerate production before the end of 2025 to secure subsidy benefits.
Ternary precursors and ternary cathode materials:
Entering September, prices for ternary precursors and ternary cathode materials stabilized following previous increases. According to Mysteel, as of September 25, the midpoint price for 5-series ternary precursor was Yuan 77,500/tonne, up Yuan 3,500/tonne from August. The 6-series midpoint price was Yuan 80,500/tonne, rising Yuan 3,000/tonne, while the 8-series midpoint price reached Yuan 91,500/tonne, an increase of Yuan 2,000/tonne. For ternary cathode materials, the 5-series midpoint price was Yuan 112,500/tonne (up Yuan 5,000/tonne MoM), the 6-series was Yuan 147,500/tonne (up Yuan 5,000/tonne), and the 8-series was Yuan 140,000/tonne (also up Yuan 5,000/tonne).
Regarding cobalt salts, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) announced last Saturday that its cobalt export ban will end on October 16, 2025. Subsequently, all cobalt exports from the DRC will be subject to a quota policy until further notice. Currently, spot inventories of cobalt intermediate products in China are tight. Even after quotas are lifted in mid-October, the long sea freight cycle means the tight supply situation domestically is unlikely to ease in the short term. Overall spot market prices in the fourth quarter are expected to be more prone to increases than decreases.
In the lithium salt sector, although companies indicated that production resumptions were progressing smoothly, operations had not yet officially restarted. With the National Day holiday approaching, downstream players gradually commenced pre-holiday stocking, which, along with spot market volumes and prices, could provide support in the short term. Looking ahead, supply in the fourth quarter is highly likely to remain high, while demand faces seasonal pressure.
In September, prices for nickel and cobalt salts increased significantly, driving up the absolute cost and exacerbating cost pressures for ternary precursors. Coupled with robust downstream demand during the month, capacity utilization rates for ternary precursors improved. The transaction coefficients for spot nickel and cobalt purchases by some precursor manufacturers rose by 1-2% to a range of 90-92% of the benchmark.
Written by Cora Ji, jiruyan@mysteel.com
