MYSTEEL: China's steel exports defy expectations in 2025 -- here's why

At the start of 2025, most industry analysts expected China’s steel exports to slow. Global headwinds including trade frictions, economic uncertainties, and geopolitical tension were expected to curb shipments. Yet, by September, China had shipped nearly 88 million tonnes of finished steel -- a 9.2% increase over the same period last year -- surprising many.

Front-loading shipments and strategic timing A key factor behind the unexpected growth in China's steel exports has been proactive timing. Since late 2024, Chinese exporters anticipated higher tariffs and trade restrictions, moving large volumes overseas ahead of schedule. When the U.S. imposed a 10% fentanyl-related tariff on certain Chinese imports effective February