Chinese automakers set aggressive 2026 sales targets, but analysts warn of slowing growth

Major Chinese carmakers have announced ambitious sales targets that signal double-digit growth, pinning their hopes on overseas expansion and rapid gains in new energy vehicles. However, industry bodies and analysts remain cautious, warning that policy rollbacks, softening demand, and accelerating industry consolidation could leave sales flat or even in decline.

So far, 11 automakers have announced sales targets for 2026 totaling 23.8 million units, up from a combined 20 million units sold in 2025, implying year-on-year growth of about 19%. The figure excludes BYD, SAIC, GAC and Li Auto, which together sold 11.67 million vehicles last year but have