MYSTEEL: China thermal coal sector braces for tighter swings in 2026

China's domestic thermal coal market is moving into 2026 in very different shape from the surplus-driven environment that dominated much of 2024 and early 2025, as supply discipline has tightened while demand growth is being increasingly capped by the energy transition, Mysteel observes in its annual report on the commodity.

The shift already became visible in the second half of 2025. After staying high through the first six months, the supply of steam coal in the market tightened suddenly once production inspections were launched across major mining regions. Output in Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia – the top three producing