Mysteel' s survey on national crush plants' shutdown and resumption schedule for Chinese New Year holiday in 2026

Due to the high cost of domestic soybean for the first quarter of 2026, crush plants have been experiencing poor crushing margins. Coupled with persistently high domestic soybean meal inventories, crush plants' enthusiasm for production has diminished compared to previous years, leading to forced shutdowns following stockpile buildup.

According to Mysteel's data, the overall operating rates of domestic crush plants averaged 67.15% on February 4, 2026, down 1.63% from the previous day. On January 16 (the 17th day of the twelfth lunar month) 2025, one week before the Chinese New Year, the operating rate averaged 71.83%, representing a year-on-year decrease of approximately 5 percentage points.

As the Chinese New Year holiday approaches, Mysteel has conducted a preliminary survey on the shutdown and resumption scheduling of imported soybean crush plants in China during the Chinese New Year holiday. The specific findings of this survey are as follows.

Based on the full sample of surveyed crush plants, 16 crush plants (accounting for 13%) ceased the production before January 2026. The majority of crush plants (59%) will be shut down for holiday between February 9 and February 14. This is followed by 15% of crush plants planning to close between February 1 and February 8. Five crush plants have yet to finalize their specific shutdown dates. And only two plan to maintain operation during the Chinese New Year holiday. Compared to the 2025 Chinese New Year survey, most crush plants have scheduled earlier shutdowns this year, with one additional crush plant planning to operate during the holiday.

Meanwhile, some crush plants have yet to determine their post-holiday resumption dates. However, according to historical practices, most crush plants are expected to resume the production between February 24 and February 26, 2026, aligning with the resumption schedule during the 2025 Chinese New Year holiday.

In terms of specific crushing volumes, Mysteel's data shows that during the Chinese New Year holiday week from February 15 to February 23, 2026, the total soybean crushing volume of major domestic crush plants is estimated at 50,300 tonnes. The daily average crushing volume will likely reduce significantly to 5,600 tonnes, down 3,200 tonnes year-on-year, with an average daily operating rate of 1.08%. When the holiday nears its end, some crush plants are scheduled to resume crushing operations on February 22, 2026. By February 24, the crushing volume is anticipated to show a noticeable increase, with the operating rate expected to rise by approximately 32%.

After the Chinese New Year, with the crush plants gradually resuming operations, it is estimated that by February 24, 2026, the soybean crushing volume will recover to 193,500 tonnes, with an operating rate of 37.26%, showing an upward trend. By February 28, the daily soybean crushing volume is expected to exceed 300,000 tonnes, with an operating rate of 64.55%. By then, delivery capabilities and transportation logistics are also expected to largely return to normal.

In summary, due to poor crushing margins for crush plants and earlier pre-holiday stockpiling by feed enterprises in 2026, most crush plants have advanced their shutdown schedules. However, as most downstream enterprises have sufficient inventories, some crush plants may delay their resumption of operations until around the Lantern Festival due to inventory pressure.

Written by Stacy Chen, chenyijuan@mysteel.com