Mysteel survey: Domestic soybean meal markets remain quiet during holiday, awaiting direction post-holiday

During the 2026 Chinese New Year holiday, CBOT soybean prices showed a stable to slightly stronger trend. As of February 23, the main CBOT soybean contract settled at 1154.77 cents per bushel, an increase of 5.04 cents, or 0.44%, from 1149.73 cents per bushel on February 13.

On the news front, on February 21, US President Donald Trump signed an executive order announcing a 10% ad valorem tariff on imported goods, effective February 24 for 150 days. Subsequently, Trump stated on his social media platform, 'Truth Social,' that he plans to increase this rate to 15% and mentioned that new tariff measures would be determined and announced in the coming months.

Currently, the domestic soybean meal market remains in the Chinese New Year holiday period, with spot market trading at a standstill and no immediate reaction to the above news. Please refer to the latest summary from Mysteel:

Northeast China: Dalian soybean meal futures were closed during the holiday. All oil plants in the Northeast are shut down and not issuing invoices. Plants like Jiusan Siping and Panjin Huifu are expected to resume invoicing gradually from February 24, 2026. One plant is expected to resume operations around the February 26, 2026 starting slightly later than previous years. Pre-holiday oil plant spot quotes were around Yuan 3200/tonne, with no post-holiday quotes yet. Traders quoted Yuan 3190-3250 /tonne pre-holiday and are currently on holiday with no quotes, expected to resume gradually tomorrow. Downstream and end-users are consuming pre-purchased contracts built before the holiday, primarily using existing inventory. CBOT soybeans accumulated a 2% gain during the holiday, with gains narrowing on the 20th. On the evening of the 20th, the US President posted on social media about increasing the proposed 10% import tariff on global goods to 15%. If subsequent Chinese purchases do not meet expectations, CBOT soybeans could face downward pressure. The domestic market is cautiously waiting for direction when trading resumes.

North China: All oil plants in North China are currently shut down and not issuing invoices. Several plants like Tianjin Jiusan and Tianhai Defu are expected to resume operations and invoice tomorrow, with others resuming gradually this week. Overall, the resumption of operations is slightly later than in previous years. Pre-holiday market prices ranged from Yuan 3100-3180 /tonne, with significant differences between pre-holiday and post-holiday delivery prices, leading to divergent market views on post-holiday trends. Amidst renewed uncertainty over US tariff policies during the holiday, market sentiment is cautious, awaiting direction from the Dalian futures market opening. Attention will be on downstream replenishment demand and changes in oil plant inventories post-holiday.

Shandong: Pre-holiday, Rizhao soybean meal spot prices fluctuated narrowly between Yuan 3070-3080/tonne. All Shandong oil plants were shut down during the Chinese New Year break. A few plants will start operating on the February 23, 2026, but most enterprises have not yet resumed work. Market quotes are extremely scarce currently. It is expected that oil plants will resume operations fully on the February 24 and February 25, 2026, with only a very few continuing to be shut down. During the holiday, strong crush demand and favorable export expectations for US soybeans pushed CBOT soybean futures to a three-month high. It is expected that DCE soybean meal futures (M05) will maintain a firm trend post-holiday. Coupled with downstream restocking demand after the holiday, soybean meal spot prices could be supported in the short term. Shandong soybean meal spot prices might rise to Yuan 3100 /tonne. In the medium to long term, basis is expected to weaken due to expectations of ample supply.

East China: Some traders have resumed work recently, but market quotes are somewhat delayed due to the long holiday. Current soybean meal market quotes in the East China region range from Yuan 3060-3130/tonne, essentially stable compared to pre-holiday levels. Plants will gradually resume production from tomorrow, with operating rates expected to steadily increase. Downstream inquiries based on immediate needs have increased, but traders and oil plants are cautious with quotes. Logistics have not yet fully recovered, and shipments are slow. The market awaits direction from tomorrow's market opening.

Sichuan-Chongqing: Post-holiday, traders generally resumed business around February 22-24, 2026. Market quotes are delayed this year due to the long holiday. Pre-holiday market quotes were Yuan 3200-3230 /tonne in the Sichuan area and Yuan 3150-3200/tonne in the Chongqing area. Today, quotes in the Chengdu area are Yuan 4230-4260/tonne, and in the Chongqing area Yuan 4180-4220/tonne, up Yuan 20-30/tonne from pre-holiday levels. Post-holiday market inquiries have increased, but quotes are awaiting direction from tomorrow's market open. Downstream inquiry and procurement activity seems higher than previous years. Current logistics and transportation have not yet resumed, so delivery speeds are slow. Regarding oil plants, current soybean crush volume in the Sichuan-Chongqing region is zero tonnes, with an operating rate of 0%. Plants will start operating gradually from the February 24-26, 2026, later than previous years. Invoicing and delivery will generally commence on February 24-26,2026. Oil plants and traders are being cautious with quotes. Specific situations will be tracked promptly after the market opens.

Hubei-Hunan:The operating rate for oil plants in the Hubei-Hunan region is 0%, with plants expected to resume operations and shipments gradually after February 24, 2026. Pre-holiday market quotes in the region were Yuan 3100-3150 /tonne. Market quotes are delayed this year due to the long holiday, with very few quotes available today, awaiting direction from tomorrow's market open. Downstream inquiry and procurement interest is currently low. Logistics and transportation have not yet resumed, resulting in slow shipments.

Jiangxi: The market remained closed during the Chinese New Year. All Jiangxi oil plants were shut down with no spot products available for delivery. Only one plant is expected to resume production around February 25, 2026, with others resuming around the Lantern Festival. Due to the lack of futures trading during the holiday, no market quotes are available. Most enterprises will start quoting and selling from February 24, 2026. Downstream inventory levels were relatively high before the holiday; centralized procurement may occur after inventories are appropriately digested.

Guangdong: During the Chinese New Year holiday, most oil plants had already shut down in advance. Only Cargill and Bohi may resume operations on February 23, 2026. Most plants will resume operations intensively from February 24-25, 2026. The operating rate is expected to reach 41.03% on February 25, with a crush volume of approximately 29,000 tonnes. Due to the lack of domestic futures reference during the holiday, market quotes were scarce. The reference price in the Dongguan market is Yuan 3080 /tonne, up Yuan 20/tonne from pre-holiday levels. Most enterprises will officially start quoting and selling from February 24. Pre-holiday downstream physical inventories were generally above 10 days, with current focus on consuming existing stocks. Oil plant soybean meal inventories remained high before the holiday, with relatively ample supply.

Guangxi: The spot price for soybean meal in the Guangxi market is Yuan 3080-3090/tonne, up Yuan 10/tonne from pre-holiday levels. Currently, the festive atmosphere persists, and spot market trading activity is weak. Quotes from oil plants and traders are few. Oil plants will gradually resume operations from February 24. Reduced supply pressure combined with restocking demand from downstream end-users after depleting inventories will support soybean meal spot prices. Soybean meal spot prices are expected to remain stable with a firm bias in the short term.

Fujian: The operating rate for oil plants in Fujian is 0%. Most plants are expected to resume operations after February 24. Pre-holiday quotes in the Fujian area ranged from Yuan 3110-3150 /tonne. Prices are expected to be stable with a firm bias. Downstream inquiry and procurement interest is currently low.