China's lithium carbonate market is likely to see deepening supply shortage in the coming months with Zimbabwe suspending domestic lithium concentrate exports, bringing additional support to lithium carbonate prices, based on Mysteel's analysis.
In detail, Zimbabwe's Minister of Mines announced the immediate suspension of exports of all unprocessed minerals and lithium concentrates on February 25, 2026. The move aims to regulate local mining operations and develop downstream lithium smelting capabilities. The ban took effect immediately, with its lifting subject to further notice from the government.
Amid the booming lithium-ion battery industry, the Zimbabwean government has been progressively tightening its lithium export policies, clearly signaling its call for mining companies to deepen lithium processing within the country.
Looking back, in 2022, both raw ore and concentrates (crude) were required to be exported through a state-owned enterprise. Subsequently, towards the end of 2022, exports were gradually restricted to only allow lithium concentrate exports, which were subject to a 5% tariff, completely banning raw ore exports. By 2026, the export tariff on lithium concentrate was further increased to 10%, with a planned full ban on lithium concentrate exports starting in January 2027, allowing only the export of lithium sulfate and higher-concentration lithium products.
At present, Zimbabwe is the world's second-largest source of hard-rock lithium ore. Its share of China's lithium ore imports increased gradually between 2022 and 2025, accounting for 20.6% in 2024 and 15.5% in 2025, corresponding to lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) supplies of approximately 127,000 tonnes and 134,000 tonnes, respectively. This represented 9.2% and 7.9% of the global lithium carbonate supply in those years.
In 2026, Zimbabwe's lithium ore supply is projected to increase to 180,000 tonnes LCE per year, accounting for an estimated 8.4% of global lithium carbonate supply.
According to a Mysteel's survey, 17 sampled lithium refineries relying on outsourced feedstock held a combined lithium ore inventory of 574,000 tonnes, with the average inventory days standing at 47 days, as these refineries typically maintain sufficient lithium ore inventory to ensure production efficiency and control costs, considering factors such as scheduled shipments and shipping times.
Based on recent lithium ore transaction activity, lithium refineries have secured supplies for their tolling orders and own stockpiles roughly until mid-to-late April 2026. Given the average two-month shipping time from Zimbabwe, a tangible impact on lithium carbonate production is expected to begin around May if the ban remains in place.
According to Mysteel's projections, the average monthly lithium ore supply from Zimbabwe in 2026 could reach 15,000 tonnes LCE. If the lifting of the ban is uncertain or delayed further, China's lithium carbonate supply-demand balance could enter a sustained period of inventory drawdown starting from May 2026. This is expected to drive rapid increases in lithium prices.
In the near term, since the geopolitical stability of overseas sources like Africa and South America is relatively poor, and the release of domestic lithium ore supplies has also been delayed, these supply-side disruptions, combined with the expected rebound in downstream demand in March, are poised to push lithium ore and lithium carbonate prices higher.
Source: Mysteel
Written by Aggie Hu, huchenying@mysteel.com
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