China's 1# refined copper spot price stood at Yuan 92,536/tonne on March 23, falling notably by Yuan 3,152/tonne compared with the previous trading day, according to Mysteel's assessment. Specifically, spot prices in Shanghai ranged between Yuan 91,880-93,150/tonne, averaging at Yuan 92,475/tonne. The 1# refined copper average spot premium in Shanghai was Yuan -55/tonne, rising by Yuan 5/tonne day on day. The short-term downward pressure on copper prices stemmed from a stronger U.S. dollar index and diminished market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Additionally, heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East intensified market risk aversion, prompting capital outflows from the non-ferrous metals sector.
Copper prices continued to decline on March 23, with downstream enterprises purchasing at low prices. However, given earlier substantial restocking and some smelters controlling shipment pace, trading activity in China's refined copper market declined slightly. Mysteel's survey covering 56 refined copper trading enterprises (including traders, smelters, and downstream fabricators) in China indicated that the daily spot transaction volume totaled 30,200 tonnes on March 23, dropping by 4,200 tonnes or 12.27% day on day.
Regarding imports and exports, China's refined copper imports declined year on year during January and February 2026, while exports increased notably. In January, China imported 354,900 tonnes of refined copper and exported 93,300 tonnes, falling by 24.09% but surging by 449.06% year on year, respectively. In February, the total refined copper imports into China were 152,200 tonnes, declining by 43.59% year on year, while exports totaled 78,200 tonnes, increasing by 140.96% compared with the same period last year.
Entering 2026, surging overseas copper prices over China dampened the import ratio and suppressed refined copper imports. Meanwhile, China's refined copper inventory continued accumulating since the end of 2025, further dampening import momentum. Additionally, the Chinese New Year (CNY) holiday in February led to widespread shutdowns across downstream enterprises in China, weakening demand and also suppressing imports. The combination of sluggish domestic demand and worsening import ratio prompted smelters and traders to actively pursue exports, and smelters maintained normal production during the CNY holiday, providing additional support to export volumes. Looking ahead, China's refined copper imports are expected to see a modest increase in March, supported by rising demand. However, high domestic inventory and production disruptions at overseas smelters may limit the increase. On the export front, the closure of the export window and growing domestic demand are likely to constrain China's refined copper exports in March, according to Mysteel.
China's copper semis market was generally weak on March 23, as the recent sharp volatility in copper prices heightened market caution. Mysteel's 31 Chinese copper rod sample manufacturers with a total annual capacity of 6.01 million tonnes and 6 sample traders reported that order volumes decreased by 2,240 tonnes or 20.46% day on day, reaching 8,710 tonnes on March 23, with refined copper rod transactions falling by 1,578 tonnes or 17.69% to 7,342 tonnes, and secondary decreasing by 662 tonnes or 32.61% to 1,368 tonnes. While refined copper rod and copper plate/strip enterprises controlled new orders amid low finished product inventory, copper tube demand was directly dampened by significant price fluctuations. Regarding secondary copper rod and copper bar, firm raw material copper scrap prices and limited supply supported prices and weighed on market sentiment.
Although China's copper demand has strengthened, with inventory starting to decline, the actual support to market sentiment will be limited. Overall, copper prices are expected to remain in weak consolidation in the short term, with downside risks persisting amid macro disruptions.
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Written by Mingyuan Wang, wangmingyuan@mysteel.com
Edited by Ruolan Chen, chenruolan@mysteel.com
