China's 1# refined copper spot price stood at Yuan 94,116/tonne on March 24, rebounding by Yuan 1,580/tonne compared with the previous trading day, according to Mysteel's assessment. Specifically, spot prices in Shanghai ranged between Yuan 93,710-94,440/tonne, averaging at Yuan 94,045/tonne. The 1# refined copper average spot premium in Shanghai was Yuan -75/tonne, falling by Yuan 20/tonne day on day.
Macro sentiment slightly eased, leading China's copper prices to rebound, while refined copper transactions dropped on March 24. Mysteel's survey covering 56 refined copper trading enterprises (including traders, smelters, and downstream fabricators) in China indicated that the daily spot transaction volume totaled 27,100 tonnes on March 24, dropping by 3,200 tonnes or 10.46% day on day. Some traders actively lowered prices to boost sales, resulting in lower spot premiums.
On the raw material side, Mysteel's clean copper concentrate treatment charge (TC) reached -$67.2/dmt on March 24, staying at an extremely low level. Though smelters' profits could partially be secured by the rising by-product sulfuric acid prices, raw material supply issues remained critical. Concerning copper scrap, the industry tax policy adjustments in China led downstream enterprises to prefer imported copper scrap, and even refined copper, due to the narrowing refined-scrap copper price spread. Consequently, January and February saw growing copper scrap imports into China, reaching 400,300 tonnes, with a year-on-year increase of 4.64%.
Rebounding copper prices resulted in mixed performance across China's downstream copper semis markets, with overall conditions remaining weak. Mysteel's 31 Chinese copper rod sample manufacturers with a total annual capacity of 6.01 million tonnes and 6 sample traders reported that order volumes decreased by 862 tonnes or 9.9% day on day, reaching 7,848 tonnes on March 24, with refined copper rod transactions falling by 702 tonnes or 9.56% to 6,640 tonnes, and secondary decreasing by 160 tonnes or 11.7% to 1,208 tonnes. Most refined copper rod and copper plate/strip enterprises focused on fulfilling existing orders and adopted a cautious stance toward new orders. Meanwhile, the secondary copper rod market continued to see weak trading activity due to the persistently narrow refined-secondary copper rod price spread. In contrast, the copper tube and copper bar markets saw a pickup in trading activity, with market sentiment highly sensitive to copper price movements.
Looking ahead, macroeconomic uncertainties will continue to exert a significant influence on copper prices. However, with copper prices falling sharply and China entering its peak consumption season, fundamentals are likely to provide some support, though upward momentum for copper prices remains insufficient. In the short term, copper prices are expected to continue fluctuating.
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Written by Mingyuan Wang, wangmingyuan@mysteel.com
Edited by Ruolan Chen, chenruolan@mysteel.com
