Tin prices fell then rose this week amid shifting macro sentiment, with the weekly average edging down from last week. The weekly average settlement price of the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) tin main contract from March 23 to 26 declined by 5.97% to Yuan 347,160/tonne week on week. Meanwhile, the London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month tin contract settlement prices averaged at $44,338/tonne from Monday to Thursday this week, down by 3.18% week on week. Regarding spot prices, China's 1# tin ingot weekly average spot price stood at Yuan 348,375/tonne this week, a 5.59% decrease week on week, according to Mysteel.
On March 26, spot premiums for Yunxi, other Yun and small-branded tin ingots increased by Yuan 500/tonne, Yuan 300/tonne and Yuan 500/tonne week on week to Yuan 3,000/tonne, Yuan 2,000/tonne, and Yuan 1,500/tonne, respectively. Shortages of certain tin ingot brands pushed up China's tin ingot spot premiums.
On the macro front, the clearest ceasefire signal since the start of U.S.-Iran military actions emerged from the White House on March 24. The U.S. President Donald Trump stated publicly that substantial progress had been made in ending the war with Iran. However, military actions on both sides could still escalate, and Iran has yet to give a final response to the U.S.'s 15-point ceasefire plan. The uncertain geopolitical situation led to shifting market sentiment, which in turn caused significant volatility in commodity prices this week.
Fundamentally, the continued recovery of tin mining in Wa State, Myanmar, rising Indonesian tin ingot trading volumes, the opening of China's tin ingot import window, and the rebound in domestic tin concentrate treatment charges all suggested an expected improvement in supply, thereby weakening support for China's tin prices. On the demand side, downstream buying interest in tin ingots remained highly sensitive to price fluctuations. Purchasing activity was strong earlier this week when prices were low, but downstream buyers adopted a wait-and-see approach and slowed procurement as prices rose later. On the end-use front, overall consumption was still in the recovery phase. Demand from the photovoltaic sector picked up slightly, and home appliance production schedules increased, though some traditional consumption segments remained weak. As a result, the limited improvement in market demand was insufficient to provide a significant boost to tin prices.
Overall, tin prices this week were significantly influenced by uncertainties surrounding geopolitical conflicts, while fundamentals provided limited support, keeping prices at relatively low levels. Looking ahead, macro-related disruptions are expected to remain notable in the near term. From a fundamental perspective, although production and delivery delays at some tin smelters have created near-term spot tightness, supporting spot premiums, expectations of improved raw material supply and sluggish demand growth are likely to keep tin prices range-bound at low levels in the short term. However, if macro headwinds ease, there remains some room for a modest price upside.
Written by Zhaorui Cui, cuizhaorui@mysteel.com
Edited by Mingyuan Wang, wangmingyuan@mysteel.com
