WEEKLY: Downward risks for China's thermal coal market mount

China's thermal coal market may come under downward pressure this week, after a week-long rebound driven by phased restocking from non-power sectors ahead of scheduled railway maintenance. However, external factors, including ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, are likely to limit the downside, suggesting only mild price corrections going forward.

Last week (March 23-27), thermal coal prices at northern transfer ports increased strikingly. As of last Friday, Mysteel's assessment of benchmark 5,500 kcal/kg NAR grade reached Yuan 761/tonne ($110/t) FOB with VAT, up by Yuan 24/t on week. The price rally was mainly driven by increased buying from cement and